Tigo Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:TYGO) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that Tigo Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:TYGO) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.7% to US$1.08 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 26% toUS$0.22 per share. Revenues of US$14m did beat expectations by 2.5%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Tigo Energy after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Tigo Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Tigo Energy from four analysts is for revenues of US$98.0m in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 113% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 33% to US$0.55. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$104.5m and US$0.52 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in to its losses per share forecasts.

The average price target fell 7.2% to US$3.67, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Tigo Energy's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tigo Energy at US$4.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tigo Energy's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 83% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.0% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Tigo Energy is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Tigo Energy. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Tigo Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 5 warning signs for Tigo Energy that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.