Sunrun (RUN): Assessing Valuation After a 75% Year-to-Date Rebound in the Share Price

Sunrun (RUN) has quietly become a lightning rod for investors trying to read the next move in residential solar, as its stock swings contrast sharply with a strong 75 % year to date climb.

See our latest analysis for Sunrun.

That sharp year to date share price return of about 75 % comes after a much tougher few years. The recent 90 day share price rebound hints that sentiment around Sunrun’s long term growth and risk profile may finally be stabilising.

If Sunrun’s turnaround has you watching the clean energy space more closely, it could be worth scouting other solar adjacent names through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With shares still below analyst targets despite a powerful rebound, investors are asking whether Sunrun’s mix of rapid revenue growth, heavy losses, and improving sentiment points to an undervalued clean energy leader or a stock already pricing in brighter days ahead?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 21.4% Undervalued

With Sunrun’s fair value estimate of $22.74 sitting notably above the recent $17.87 close, the most followed narrative frames upside as tied to structural shifts in how residential solar is financed and monetised.

Sunrun is rapidly scaling its storage and grid services offerings, enrolling a growing portion of its customer base (currently ~35% of 200,000 batteries, aiming for 10 GWh of dispatchable energy by 2029), enabling significant recurring revenue growth and expanded margin opportunities as demand for grid support rises. This will positively impact long term revenue and net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see the math behind that upside call? The story hinges on fast climbing earnings, fatter margins, and a future profit multiple that might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $22.74 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, looming tax credit expirations and Sunrun’s heavy reliance on external financing could quickly pressure growth expectations if policy or credit conditions deteriorate.

Find out about the key risks to this Sunrun narrative.

Build Your Own Sunrun Narrative

If you see the outlook differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Sunrun research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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