Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Is Down 9.4% After Lowering 2025 Revenue Guidance and Reporting Wider Losses

• Intuitive Machines reported second-quarter results showing sales rising to US$50.31 million year-over-year, but net results moved from an income of US$15.87 million last year to a net loss of US$38.59 million, with management lowering its 2025 full-year revenue guidance to the lower end of prior forecasts.
• The company also announced a new US$9.8 million Phase Two government contract to further development of its Orbital Transfer Vehicle, highlighting ongoing efforts to expand both its customer base and in-space mobility services.
• We'll examine how the updated full-year revenue guidance impacts Intuitive Machines' investment narrative and outlook on growth.

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Intuitive Machines Investment Narrative Recap

To own shares in Intuitive Machines, I think you have to believe in the company’s ability to transform government space contracts and commercialize in-space services despite ongoing losses. The latest earnings report, with higher revenues but a sizable net loss and lowered revenue guidance, sends an important signal, while there is near-term progress, the most immediate catalyst (securing new contracts and broadening its customer base) must be weighed against the continued risk of operating losses and unpredictable contract timing. The overall investment story here is very much intact, but the latest figures do not materially alter the balance between that key catalyst and the company’s largest risk around recurring losses and the timeline to reach profitability.

The recent award of a US$9.8 million Phase Two government contract to advance Orbital Transfer Vehicle development looks like a meaningful step forward for Intuitive Machines’ ambition to lead in in-space mobility. While relatively small in size compared to overall revenue targets, this contract supports the company’s growth catalyst, which is building a diversified revenue stream from commercial and civil space players. It reinforces management’s push to expand capabilities and move closer to recurring service revenues, even as the larger revenue and earnings targets remain a challenge.

But just as optimism grows about Intuitive Machines’ contract wins, investors should be aware that persistent losses and the risk of delayed profitability...

Read the full narrative on Intuitive Machines (it's free!)

Intuitive Machines is projected to reach $467.1 million in revenue and $23.5 million in earnings by 2028. Achieving this would require annual revenue growth of 29.1% and an earnings increase of $221.4 million from the current earnings of -$197.9 million.

Uncover how Intuitive Machines' forecasts yield a $15.11 fair value, a 49% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty-one members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Intuitive Machines’ fair value to range from US$5.64 to US$59.69 per share. With full-year revenue guidance reduced to the lower end of forecasts, your outlook may depend on how quickly management can convert government contracts into sustained, profitable growth, so it’s worth checking multiple viewpoints.

Explore 21 other fair value estimates on Intuitive Machines - why the stock might be worth 44% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Intuitive Machines Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Intuitive Machines research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Intuitive Machines research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Intuitive Machines' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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