Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.1% to US$70.45 in the past week. Fastenal reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.9b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.52, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Fastenal

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Fastenal's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$7.77b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 5.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.3% to US$2.11. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.16 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$67.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Fastenal analyst has a price target of US$85.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$50.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Fastenal'shistorical trends, as the 7.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 8.3% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that Fastenal is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fastenal. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Fastenal analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.