Blue Bird (BLBD): Assessing Valuation After Strong Earnings, Revenue Growth, and Higher Returns on Capital

Blue Bird (BLBD) has captured investor attention following another quarter of strong results. The company’s sustained revenue growth and rising earnings per share over the last five years have helped drive its stock performance.

See our latest analysis for Blue Bird.

Blue Bird’s shares have continued to show impressive momentum, climbing more than 40% year-to-date and delivering a 19.4% total shareholder return over the past year. The recent earnings beat and expanding return on invested capital have added to the company’s growth story and reinforced a longer-term trend for investors watching the school bus leader’s performance.

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With the stock trading near record highs and strong growth trends in place, the real question for investors now is whether Blue Bird remains undervalued or if future gains are already reflected in the share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.3% Undervalued

Blue Bird’s most widely followed narrative puts its fair value above the current market price, suggesting that the stock may have further room to run compared to its last close.

Blue Bird is strongly positioned to benefit from increasing government funding and incentives for clean school buses, as evidenced by continuous inflows from the EPA Clean School Bus program and DOE grants. This expected ongoing funding should directly drive future revenue growth and support higher EV and alternative-fuel bus sales.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious which market forces and financial assumptions could be powering this bullish narrative? The fair value hinges on future revenue streams, ambitious electrification plans, and a margin outlook that most investors would not expect. Find out what is driving this upside view in the full analysis.

Result: Fair Value of $59.13 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued government incentives and stable policy remain essential for growth. Any funding shifts could quickly change Blue Bird’s outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Blue Bird narrative.

Build Your Own Blue Bird Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive deeper into the numbers, you can easily develop your own Blue Bird narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your Blue Bird research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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