Victory Bancorp (OTCPK:VTYB) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of VTYB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

VTYB ($14.25) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($25.64)

VTYB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	2/6

VTYB Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 44.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 28.2% over the past year

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Shares are highly illiquid

Unstable dividend track record

Does not have a meaningful market cap ($28M)

Victory Bancorp Competitors

Mauch Chunk Trust Financial

OTCPK:MCHT

US$28.2m

Marathon Bancorp

OTCPK:MBBC

US$24.4m

CNB

OTCPK:CNBZ

US$26.2m

CNB Financial Services

OTCPK:CBFC

US$25.4m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Victory Bancorp
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$14.25
52 Week High	US$15.00
52 Week Low	US$12.78
Beta	0.33
1 Month Change	-5.00%
3 Month Change	n/a
1 Year Change	11.59%
3 Year Change	41.79%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	81.53%

Shareholder Returns

	VTYB	US Banks	US Market
7D	-0.4%	1.1%	1.0%
1Y	11.6%	-24.1%	-20.0%

Return vs Industry: VTYB exceeded the US Banks industry which returned -26.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: VTYB exceeded the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is VTYB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
VTYB volatility
VTYB Average Weekly Movement	n/a
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.4%
Market Average Movement	6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: Insufficient data to determine VTYB's volatility over the past 3 months.

Volatility Over Time: Insufficient data to determine VTYB's volatility change over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2008	n/a	Joe Major	https://www.victorybank.com

The Victory Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for The Victory Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking products and services for small and middle market commercial and retail customers in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. The company offers checking accounts, savings and money market accounts, escrow management account, demand deposits, investment certificates, and certificates of deposit; secured and unsecured personal term loans, and line of credit; home mortgages; home equity lines of credit; revolving credit, and small business, and automobile loans. It also provides commercial term loans, commercial lines of credit, commercial mortgage/real estate loans, and construction loans; government banking, remote deposit, mobile banking, online banking and bill pay, cash management, and merchant services; and certificate of deposit account registry, insured cash sweep, and lock box services, as well as credit cards.

Victory Bancorp Fundamentals Summary

How do Victory Bancorp's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
VTYB fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$28.09m
Earnings (TTM)	US$4.17m
Revenue (TTM)	US$15.79m

6.7x

P/E Ratio

1.1x

P/B Ratio

Is VTYB overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
VTYB income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$15.79m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$15.79m
Other Expenses	US$11.62m
Earnings	US$4.17m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.12
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	26.43%
Debt/Equity Ratio	64.0%

How did VTYB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.8%

Current Dividend Yield

10%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is VTYB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VTYB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for VTYB. This is calculated by dividing VTYB's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is VTYB's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$28.09m

VTYB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VTYB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

VTYB PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for VTYB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.1x
MCHT Mauch Chunk Trust Financial	5.8x	n/a	US$28.2m
MBBC Marathon Bancorp	18.3x	n/a	US$24.4m
CNBZ CNB	8.7x	n/a	US$26.2m
CBFC CNB Financial Services	7.5x	n/a	US$25.4m
VTYB Victory Bancorp	6.7x	n/a	US$28.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VTYB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the peer average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VTYB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VTYB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VTYB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VTYB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.7x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate VTYB's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VTYB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VTYB ($14.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($25.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VTYB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Victory Bancorp forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

10.6%

Forecasted Banks industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Victory Bancorp has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

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Examine whether Victory Bancorp is trading at an attractive price based on how much it is expected to earn in the future, and relative to its industry peers and the wider market.
While we do not consider unaudited financials to be a reliable enough to include in our analysis, you can access them on the OTC Markets Website. If you are looking for more of a qualitative research into the company, you can access Victory Bancorp's filings and announcements here.

Past Performance

How has Victory Bancorp performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

24.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: VTYB has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: VTYB's current net profit margins (26.4%) are higher than last year (23.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: VTYB's earnings have grown significantly by 24.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: VTYB's earnings growth over the past year (28.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (24.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: VTYB earnings growth over the past year (28.2%) exceeded the Banks industry 8.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: VTYB's Return on Equity (16.2%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Victory Bancorp's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: VTYB's Assets to Equity ratio (17.7x) is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: VTYB has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (1270%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 96% of VTYB's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: VTYB has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (68%).

Low Risk Deposits: VTYB's Loans to Deposits ratio (75%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: VTYB has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.1%).

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Dividend

What is Victory Bancorp current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.82%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Victory Bancorp Dividend Yield vs Market

How does Victory Bancorp dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (Victory Bancorp)	1.8%
Market Bottom 25% (US)	1.6%
Market Top 25% (US)	4.6%
Industry Average (Banks)	3.4%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Victory Bancorp)	n/a

Notable Dividend: VTYB's dividend (1.82%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.67%).

High Dividend: VTYB's dividend (1.82%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.75%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, VTYB has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: VTYB's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 5 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (10.1%), VTYB's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

13.8yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Joe Major (67 yo)

no data

Tenure

US$273,096

Compensation

Mr. Joseph W. Major, also known as Joe, serves as Chairman, Bank Leader, Chief Executive Officer and President of Victory Bank. Mr. Major is the principle organizer of The Victory Bank. Mr. Major serves as...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Joe Major's Compensation vs Victory Bancorp Earnings

How has Joe Major's remuneration changed compared to Victory Bancorp's earnings?
Date	Total Comp.	Salary	Company Earnings
Jun 30 2022	n/a	n/a	US$4m
Mar 31 2022	n/a	n/a	US$4m
Dec 31 2021	n/a	n/a	US$4m
Sep 30 2021	n/a	n/a	US$4m
Jun 30 2021	n/a	n/a	US$3m
Mar 31 2021	n/a	n/a	US$3m
Dec 31 2020	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Sep 30 2020	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Jun 30 2020	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Mar 31 2020	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Dec 31 2019	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Sep 30 2019	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Jun 30 2019	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Mar 31 2019	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Dec 31 2018	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Dec 31 2017	n/a	n/a	US$1m
Dec 31 2016	n/a	n/a	US$738k
Dec 31 2015	US$273k	US$209k	US$792k

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Joe's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the US market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Joe's compensation with company performance.

Board Members

Experienced Board: VTYB's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 13.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of VTYB?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
Institutions	16,068	0.8%
General Public	1,955,294	99.2%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 1 shareholders own 0.82% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
0.82%	CapFinancial Partners, LLC, Asset Management Arm	16,068	$229.0k	0%	no data

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/10/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/30 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31