The National Bank Holdings Corporation (NYSE:NBHC) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

It's been a good week for National Bank Holdings Corporation (NYSE:NBHC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 4.3% to US$35.82. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$418m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$3.72 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for National Bank Holdings

After the latest results, the five analysts covering National Bank Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$430.4m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 14% to US$3.25 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$433.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.34 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$41.40, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on National Bank Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$45.00 and the most bearish at US$38.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that National Bank Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than National Bank Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on National Bank Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for National Bank Holdings going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - National Bank Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.