Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (NYSE:HOMB) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (NYSE:HOMB) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues of US$261m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.50, missing estimates by 4.4%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Home Bancshares (Conway AR)

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Home Bancshares (Conway AR) from eight analysts is for revenues of US$1.04b in 2025. If met, it would imply a reasonable 7.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 10% to US$2.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.14 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$29.71, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Home Bancshares (Conway AR), with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Home Bancshares (Conway AR) is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Home Bancshares (Conway AR)'s past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Home Bancshares (Conway AR)'s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Home Bancshares (Conway AR) is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Home Bancshares (Conway AR) going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Home Bancshares (Conway AR) is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.