The Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (NYSE:GNTY) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (NYSE:GNTY) just released its latest annual results and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.6% to hit US$119m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$2.56, some 3.4% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Guaranty Bancshares

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Guaranty Bancshares is for revenues of US$116.9m in 2024. This implies a measurable 2.2% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 16% to US$2.19 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$112.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.89 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a nice gain to earnings per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$35.00, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Guaranty Bancshares, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$36.00 and the most bearish at US$34.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Guaranty Bancshares is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.2% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Guaranty Bancshares is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Guaranty Bancshares' earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Guaranty Bancshares analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Guaranty Bancshares (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.