Stock Analysis

Those who invested in First Horizon (NYSE:FHN) a year ago are up 47%

NYSE:FHN
Source: Shutterstock

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the First Horizon Corporation (NYSE:FHN) share price is up 41% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 28% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 0.7% in the last three years.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for First Horizon

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year, First Horizon actually saw its earnings per share drop 39%.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

Unfortunately First Horizon's fell 8.3% over twelve months. So using a snapshot of key business metrics doesn't give us a good picture of why the market is bidding up the stock.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:FHN Earnings and Revenue Growth September 19th 2024

First Horizon is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for First Horizon in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, First Horizon's TSR for the last 1 year was 47%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that First Horizon shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 47% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 3% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand First Horizon better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with First Horizon .

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.