Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 16
Independent Director recently sold US$350k worth of stock On the 9th of November, Peter Schoels sold around 10k shares on-market at roughly US$34.97 per share. This transaction amounted to 54% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought US$449k more than they sold in the last 12 months. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to US$38.00 Down from US$41.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$38.80. Stock is down 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$4.79 for next year compared to US$10.10 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 11
Independent Director recently sold US$350k worth of stock On the 9th of November, Peter Schoels sold around 10k shares on-market at roughly US$34.97 per share. This transaction amounted to 54% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought US$449k more than they sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 09
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$802.5m to US$971.1m. EPS estimate unchanged from US$4.79 at last update. Mortgage industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 3.1% next year. Consensus price target of US$38.00 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.8% to US$35.86 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 02
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to US$38.70, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Mortgage industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 8.1% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Oct 31
Price target decreased to US$38.00 Down from US$41.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$39.48. Stock is down 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$4.71 for next year compared to US$10.10 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 26
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$1.36 (down from US$2.88 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$328.0m (down 32% from 3Q 2021). Net income: US$73.0m (down 52% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 22% (down from 31% in 3Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 9.8%. Revenue is expected to decline by 20% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Mortgage industry in the US are expected to grow by 4.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Oct 07
Price target decreased to US$40.00 Down from US$43.33, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 24% above last closing price of US$32.37. Stock is down 40% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$4.60 for next year compared to US$10.10 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 29
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 August 2022. Payment date: 18 August 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 3.6% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 0.6%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (5.8%). Price Target Changed • Jul 28
Price target decreased to US$40.67 Down from US$45.33, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$41.10. Stock is down 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$4.55 for next year compared to US$10.10 last year. Reported Earnings • Jul 28
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$1.13 (down from US$2.79 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$333.0m (down 31% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$60.0m (down 59% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 18% (down from 31% in 2Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 3.2%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 47% compared to a 11% decline forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 31% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jun 14
Price target decreased to US$46.00 Down from US$55.42, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 32% above last closing price of US$34.83. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$4.90 for next year compared to US$10.10 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • May 28
Independent Director recently bought US$509k worth of stock On the 27th of May, Peter Schoels bought around 14k shares on-market at roughly US$37.72 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$829k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • May 06
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$711.4m to US$763.6m. EPS estimate fell from US$5.72 to US$4.91 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 39% next year vs 0.7% decline forecast for Mortgage industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$55.42 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$35.51 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 30
Price target decreased to US$55.42 Down from US$62.08, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 57% above last closing price of US$35.30. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$4.96 for next year compared to US$10.10 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 30
Executive VP & CFO recently bought US$183k worth of stock On the 28th of April, James Ciroli bought around 5k shares on-market at roughly US$36.52 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. James has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$412k worth in shares. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 29
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 May 2022. Payment date: 19 May 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 2.4% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.7%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (6.2%). Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: US$329.0m (down 39% from 1Q 2021). Net income: US$53.0m (down 64% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 16% (down from 28% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.4%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 58% compared to a 7.6% decline forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 51% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Apr 13
Price target decreased to US$58.08 Down from US$62.75, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 49% above last closing price of US$39.04. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$5.72 for next year compared to US$10.10 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 16
Director recently sold US$110k worth of stock On the 10th of February, Toan Huynh sold around 2k shares on-market at roughly US$45.45 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought US$119k more than they sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 28
Executive VP & CFO recently bought US$229k worth of stock On the 27th of January, James Ciroli bought around 5k shares on-market at roughly US$45.79 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was James' only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jan 28
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$10.10 (up from US$9.59 in FY 2020). Revenue: US$1.90b (up 2.3% from FY 2020). Net income: US$533.0m (flat on FY 2020). Profit margin: 28% (in line with FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 63% compared to a 11% decline forecast for the banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Jan 28
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 February 2022. Payment date: 17 February 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 2.4% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.5%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.7%). Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$2.87 (vs US$3.89 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$484.0m (down 19% from 3Q 2020). Net income: US$152.0m (down 32% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 31% (down from 37% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 17% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 28
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 November 2021. Payment date: 16 November 2021. Trailing yield: 0.5%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.2%). Upcoming Dividend • Aug 24
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 August 2021. Payment date: 15 September 2021. Trailing yield: 0.5%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.3%). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 04
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate increased from US$7.56 to US$8.97. Revenue forecast steady at US$728.6m. Net income forecast to shrink 42% next year vs 4.6% decline forecast for Mortgage industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$62.75 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 11% to US$47.10 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$2.79 (vs US$2.04 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$479.0m (up 7.9% from 2Q 2020). Net income: US$147.0m (up 27% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 31% (up from 26% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 64% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Executive Departure • Jun 04
Director David Matlin has left the company On the 25th of May, David Matlin's tenure as Director ended after 12.3 years in the role. As of March 2021, David still personally held 2.87k shares (US$129k worth at the time). A total of 2 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 6.58 years. Upcoming Dividend • May 21
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 May 2021. Payment date: 15 June 2021. Trailing yield: 0.5%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.1%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 13
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to US$51.12, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 5.3x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 4.6x. This compares to an average P/E of 14x in the Mortgage industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 41%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 11
New 90-day high: US$48.50 The company is up 32% from its price of US$36.78 on 10 December 2020. The American market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Mortgage industry, which is up 20% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$105 per share. Reported Earnings • Mar 02
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS US$9.59 (vs US$3.85 in FY 2019) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$1.86b (up 65% from FY 2019). Net income: US$538.0m (up 147% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 29% (up from 19% in FY 2019). Net interest margin (NIM): 2.80% (down from 3.05% in FY 2019). Cost-to-income ratio: 57.6% (down from 75.8% in FY 2019). Non-performing loans: 0.40% (up from 0.26% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 62% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Mar 02
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to decline by -62% while the Mortgage industry in the US is not expected to grow. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 19
Upcoming Dividend of US$0.06 Per Share Will be paid on the 15th of March to those who are registered shareholders by the 26th of February. The trailing yield of 0.5% is below the top quartile of American dividend payers (3.8%), and is lower than industry peers (3.3%). Major Estimate Revision • Jan 28
Analysts increase EPS estimates to US$7.60 The 2021 consensus revenue estimate increased from US$679.5m to US$714.0m. The earnings per share estimate also received an upgrade from US$6.17 to US$7.60 for the same period. Net income is expected to shrink by 24% next year compared to 2.8% growth forecast for the Mortgage industry in the US . The consensus price target increased from US$48.92 to US$54.33. Share price is down by 1.6% to US$44.64 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 28
Insider recently bought US$95k worth of stock On the 26th of January, Karen Buck bought around 2k shares on-market at roughly US$47.41 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$301k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jan 23
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS US$9.59 The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$1.86b (up 65% from FY 2019). Net income: US$538.0m (up 147% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 29% (up from 19% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 62% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jan 23
Price target raised to US$52.67 Up from US$48.92, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. The new target price is 14% above the current share price of US$46.20. As of last close, the stock is up 25% over the past year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Jan 23
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 63% compared to a 1.4% decline forecast for the Mortgage industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: US$42.19 The company is up 30% from its price of US$32.50 on 09 October 2020. The American market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Mortgage industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$91.25 per share. Price Target Changed • Dec 31
Price target raised to US$46.50 Up from US$43.17, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. The new target price is 14% above the current share price of US$40.62. As of last close, the stock is up 6.2% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 15
New 90-day high: US$37.20 The company is up 18% from its price of US$31.51 on 15 September 2020. The American market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Mortgage industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$115 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 23
Upcoming Dividend of US$0.05 Per Share Will be paid on the 15th of December to those who are registered shareholders by the 30th of November. The trailing yield of 0.6% is below the top quartile of American dividend payers (4.2%), and is lower than industry peers (3.2%). Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 12
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 67%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 58% compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Mortgage industry in the US. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS US$3.89 The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: US$600.0m (up 90% from 3Q 2019). Net income: US$222.0m (up 252% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 37% (up from 20% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 51% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 11
New 90-day high: US$33.00 The company is up 2.0% from its price of US$32.36 on 12 August 2020. The American market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Mortgage industry, which is up 8.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$96.90 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 04
Executive VP & CFO recently bought US$60k worth of stock On the 2nd of November, James Ciroli bought around 2k shares on-market at roughly US$30.12 per share. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth US$61k. James has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$206k worth in shares. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 28
Analysts increase EPS estimates to US$8.87 The 2020 consensus revenue estimate increased from US$659.7m to US$680.1m. The earnings per share estimate also received an upgrade from US$6.67 to US$8.87 for the same period. Net income is expected to shrink by 15% next year compared to 5.9% decline forecast for the Mortgage industry in the US. The consensus price target increased from US$39.50 to US$42.50. Share price is down by 5.3% to US$31.05 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Oct 26
Price target raised to US$42.50 Up from US$39.50, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. The new target price is 32% above the current share price of US$32.30. As of last close, the stock is down 14% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Oct 23
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of US$442.0m, up 107% from the prior year. Total revenue was US$1.63b over the last 12 months, up 48% from the prior year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Oct 23
Third-quarter earnings released: Earnings beat expectations Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 67% at US$3.88. Revenue is expected to shrink by 58% over the next year, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Mortgage industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 13
New 90-day high: US$32.89 The company is up 14% from its price of US$28.89 on 15 July 2020. The American market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Mortgage industry, which is flat over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$75.98 per share.