1st Source Corporation

NasdaqGS:SRCE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.8b

1st Source Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

1st Source is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 3.1% and 5.7% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 3.9% per annum.

Key information

3.1%

Earnings growth rate

3.94%

EPS growth rate

Banks earnings growth8.3%
Revenue growth rate5.7%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated27 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Analysis Article • Oct 29

1st Source's (NASDAQ:SRCE) Dividend Will Be Increased To $0.40

1st Source Corporation's ( NASDAQ:SRCE ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 25

1st Source: Earnings Growth To Lose Steam After A Good First Half

Summary The sizable variable-rate portfolio will take the average loan yield down as market interest rates decline. SRCE’s specialty finance segment will suffer because of a poor outlook for the demand for trucks and construction equipment. I’ve raised my EPS estimate to $5.89 for 2025 from my previous estimate of $5.53. I’m maintaining a hold rating based on an expected price upside of just 4.3% and dividend yield of 2.4%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • May 01

1st Source's (NASDAQ:SRCE) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

The board of 1st Source Corporation ( NASDAQ:SRCE ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $0.38 on the...
Analysis Article • Apr 18

Here's Why 1st Source Corporation's (NASDAQ:SRCE) CEO Might See A Pay Rise Soon

Key Insights 1st Source will host its Annual General Meeting on 24th of April Salary of US$836.5k is part of CEO Chris...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 06

1st Source Corporation: Tariff Resumption Could Hurt Specialty Finance Division; Maintaining Hold Rating

Summary Tariffs on automobiles have been paused for one month. Nevertheless, the chance of resumption creates a high risk for SRCE's Specialty Finance division. The net interest margin appears to be almost neutral to interest rate changes, which is a good quality to have in the currently uncertain interest rate environment. I’m expecting an EPS of $5.53 for 2025, which is slightly below my previous estimate of $5.56. SRCE has an expected price upside of 2.8% and a dividend yield of 2.3%. Hence, I’m maintaining a hold rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 19

1st Source: Loan Growth To Boost Earnings, But Stock Appears Fairly Valued

Summary The third quarter’s disappointing loan book decline will most probably turn out to be a blip because the operating environment continues to be satisfactory. Rate cuts will likely pressure the margin because the average loan yield is quite rate-sensitive. The December 2025 target price suggests a mid-single-digit price upside only. The dividend yield is 2.2% at a payout ratio of 26%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 04

1st Source: Positive Earnings Outlook Appears Priced In

Summary Economic indicators suggest that loan growth will likely remain below the historical average. Nevertheless, I’m expecting it to be high enough to drive earnings. Interest rate cuts will affect the loan growth and net interest margin in several ways. I’m expecting the overall effect to be slightly negative on the margin. The year-end target price suggests a small downside from the current market price. Further, SRCE is offering a low dividend yield of 2.3%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Dec 05

Does 1st Source (NASDAQ:SRCE) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
Analysis Article • Oct 24

1st Source (NASDAQ:SRCE) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To $0.34

1st Source Corporation ( NASDAQ:SRCE ) will increase its dividend on the 15th of November to $0.34, which is 6.3...
Analysis Article • Jul 25

1st Source (NASDAQ:SRCE) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.32

1st Source Corporation ( NASDAQ:SRCE ) will pay a dividend of $0.32 on the 11th of August. This payment means that the...
Analysis Article • Apr 27

With EPS Growth And More, 1st Source (NASDAQ:SRCE) Makes An Interesting Case

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...
Seeking Alpha • Oct 20

1st Source GAAP EPS of $1.32 beats by $0.16, revenue of $91.12M beats by $2.8M

1st Source press release (NASDAQ:SRCE): Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.32 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $91.12M (+3.9% Y/Y) beats by $2.8M.
Analysis Article • Oct 14

If EPS Growth Is Important To You, 1st Source (NASDAQ:SRCE) Presents An Opportunity

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 24

1st Source Corp.: Moderate Topline Growth To Partially Counter Provision Normalization

Loan growth will likely remain at a moderate level through the end of 2023. Neither the loan portfolio nor the deposit book is highly rate-sensitive. Therefore, the margin will expand only moderately as interest rates surge. Despite headwinds, provisioning will remain at a normal level through the end of 2023 thanks to the high loan loss reserves. The December 2022 target price suggests a moderately high upside from the current market price. Further, SRCE is offering a decent dividend yield. Earnings of 1st Source Corp. (SRCE) will likely dip this year mostly on the back of provision normalization. On the other hand, moderate loan growth will likely support the bottom line. Further, some margin expansion will support earnings. Overall, I'm expecting 1st Source Corporation to report earnings of $4.58 per share for 2022, down 3% year-over-year. Compared to my last report on the company, I've revised upwards my earnings estimate as I've increased both my loan and margin estimates following the second quarter’s extraordinary performance. For 2023, I'm expecting 1st Source to report earnings of $4.68 per share, up 2% year-over-year. The year-end target price suggests a moderately high upside from the current market price. Based on the total expected return, I'm maintaining a buy rating on 1st Source Corporation. Loan Growth Deceleration Likely 1st Source Corporation's loan book grew by a strong 2.9% in the second quarter of 2022, or 11.7% annualized, which beat my expectations. Given the company's historical trend, the second quarter’s growth was extraordinarily high. Half of 1st Source Corporation’s loans belong to the specialty finance segment (aircraft, trucks, construction equipment) while the other half belongs to the community banking segment (mostly small business loans). Therefore, the purchasing managers' index is a good gauge of product demand. Although it has been on a downtrend so far this year, it is still indicating expansion in manufacturing and services segments. US ISM Services PMI data by YCharts The unemployment rate is another appropriate indicator for credit demand. The company mostly operates in northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. While Indiana has a hot labor market with a very low unemployment rate, Michigan's unemployment rate is trailing the national average. Nevertheless, both states have unemployment rates that are near record lows from a historical perspective. However, some of 1st Source Corporation's business sub-segments, especially renewable energy financing, are nationwide. Therefore, the U.S. unemployment rate is also an important metric to determine future credit demand. US Unemployment Rate data by YCharts Considering the mixed economic review, I'm expecting loan growth to decline from the second quarter’s level and remain slightly below the historical mean through the end of 2023. I'm expecting the loan book to grow by 1% every quarter (4% annualized) till the end of next year. Compared to my last report on the company, I've maintained my loan growth estimate for the second half of 2022 and full-year 2023. However, as loan growth surpassed my expectation in the second quarter of 2022, I've revised upward the full-year estimate for this year. Meanwhile, I'm expecting other balance sheet items to grow mostly in line with loans. However, I'm expecting the equity book value to dip this year despite my expectations of positive retained earnings as discussed below. I'm expecting equity book value to dip because the rise in interest rates will build up unrealized losses on the available-for-sale debt securities portfolio. These losses will bypass the income statement and flow directly to the equity account through other comprehensive income. The following table shows my balance sheet estimates. FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Financial Position Net Loans 4,735 4,974 5,349 5,219 5,527 5,752 Growth of Net Loans 6.8% 5.1% 7.5% (2.4)% 5.9% 4.1% Other Earning Assets 1,034 1,105 1,394 2,374 2,073 2,157 Deposits 5,122 5,357 5,946 6,679 6,880 7,160 Borrowings and Sub-Debt 329 276 291 330 281 292 Common equity 762 828 887 916 897 980 Book Value Per Share ($) 29.4 32.4 34.7 37.0 36.3 39.7 Tangible BVPS ($) 26.1 29.1 31.5 33.6 32.9 36.3 Source: SEC Filings, Author's Estimates (In USD million unless otherwise specified) Combination of Loan and Deposit Mixes Leads to Low Asset Sensitivity Around 63% of the loan portfolio is based on fixed rates, while 37% of the portfolio is based on variable rates, as mentioned in the earnings presentation. Therefore, the average earning-asset yield is not very responsive to interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the liability side is somewhat mixed in its response to interest rate changes. Savings and interest-bearing demand accounts face the biggest and most urgent repricing pressure in a rising rate environment compared to other types of deposits. These deposits made up 57% of total deposits at the end of June 2022, which is not too high but high enough to have a material impact on average deposit cost as rates rise. The results of the management’s interest-rate sensitivity analysis given in the presentation showed that a 100-basis points hike in interest rates can boost the net interest income by only 2.92% over twelve months. Considering these factors, I'm expecting the margin to grow by 15 basis points in the second half of 2022 before stabilizing in 2023. Compared to my last report, I've revised upwards my margin estimate because of the second quarter’s performance as well as the greater-than-expected Fed Funds rate hike so far this year. Contradictory Factors to Keep Provisioning Near the Historical Mean Loan additions, high interest rates, inflation, and the possibility of a recession will likely keep provisioning elevated for the next few quarters. On the other hand, high reserves for loan losses will keep further provisioning subdued. Allowances were 2.4% of loans and leases, while nonperforming assets were just 0.6% of loans and leases at the end of June 2022. As a result, I'm expecting provisioning to revert to the historical average in the second half of 2022 and full-year 2023. However, due to the below-normal provisioning reported in the first half of this year, the full-year provisioning for 2022 would be below the historical mean. Overall, I'm expecting the net provision expense to make up 0.30% of total loans (annualized) in every quarter till the end of 2023, which is the same as the average for the last five years. Expecting Earnings to Dip by 3% Provisioning normalization will likely be the chief contributor to an earnings decline this year. Further, non-interest income will be lower this year as higher interest rates will curtail income from mortgage refinancing. On the other hand, moderate loan growth and significant margin expansion will likely support the bottom line. Overall, I'm expecting 1st Source Corporation to report earnings of around $4.58 per share for 2022, down 3% year-over-year. For 2023, I'm expecting the company to report earnings of $4.68 per share, up 2% year-over-year. The following table shows my income statement estimates. FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Income Statement Net interest income 214 224 226 237 257 276 Provision for loan losses 19 16 36 (4) 13 17 Non-interest income 97 101 104 100 92 93 Non-interest expense 186 189 187 186 188 201 Net income - Common Sh. 82 92 81 118 113 116 EPS - Diluted ($) 3.16 3.57 3.17 4.70 4.58 4.68 Source: SEC Filings, Author's Estimates (In USD million unless otherwise specified) In my last report on 1st Source Corporation, I projected earnings of $4.19 per share for 2022. I've revised upwards my earnings estimate because I've tweaked upwards both my loan and margin estimates following the second quarter’s performance.
Analysis Article • Jul 26

1st Source's (NASDAQ:SRCE) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

The board of 1st Source Corporation ( NASDAQ:SRCE ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend by 3.2% on...
Seeking Alpha • Jun 09

1st Source Corp.: Earnings To Dip Despite Favorable Economic Factors

The loan growth rate will likely improve in the remainder of this year due to Indiana and Michigan’s economic factors. The loan and deposit mixes make the top line moderately sensitive to rate changes. Provision reversals are likely to decline from last year's unsustainable level. The provisioning for new loans will remain below normal. The December 2022 target price suggests a small upside from the current market price. Further, SRCE is offering a decent dividend yield.
Analysis Article • Jun 07

Here's Why I Think 1st Source (NASDAQ:SRCE) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:SRCE - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2027473168N/AN/A3
12/31/2026459164N/AN/A3
3/31/2026426159202210N/A
12/31/2025421157213223N/A
9/30/2025405147187201N/A
6/30/2025392140206219N/A
3/31/2025389139209224N/A
12/31/2024375131181194N/A
9/30/2024370128195204N/A
6/30/2024367126180188N/A
3/31/2024360122177183N/A
12/31/2023363124182188N/A
9/30/2023363126184188N/A
6/30/2023358126177180N/A
3/31/2023351123178181N/A
12/31/2022341120173176N/A
9/30/2022337116191193N/A
6/30/2022339116165167N/A
3/31/2022340117163166N/A
12/31/2021340118164167N/A
9/30/2021338116160163N/A
6/30/2021322104195197N/A
3/31/202130792162164N/A
12/31/202029581152154N/A
9/30/202028876146149N/A
6/30/202029481137140N/A
3/31/202030286157163N/A
12/31/201930991N/A165N/A
9/30/201930891N/A180N/A
6/30/201930186N/A159N/A
3/31/201929785N/A161N/A
12/31/201829282N/A160N/A
9/30/201828778N/A111N/A
6/30/201828676N/A129N/A
3/31/201828070N/A117N/A
12/31/201727668N/A140N/A
9/30/201726965N/A131N/A
6/30/201726262N/A109N/A
3/31/201725760N/A107N/A
12/31/201625357N/A98N/A
9/30/201625257N/A96N/A
6/30/201625156N/A103N/A
3/31/201625157N/A109N/A
12/31/201524857N/A101N/A
9/30/201524557N/A90N/A
6/30/201524258N/A94N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SRCE's forecast earnings growth (3.1% per year) is below the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: SRCE's earnings (3.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SRCE's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: SRCE's revenue (5.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SRCE's revenue (5.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if SRCE's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 15:10
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

1st Source Corporation is covered by 4 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullD.A. Davidson & Co.
Peter WinterD.A. Davidson & Co.
Damon DelMonteKeefe, Bruyette, & Woods