1st Source Corporation

NasdaqGS:SRCE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.6b

1st Source Valuation

Is SRCE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SRCE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SRCE ($66.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($154.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SRCE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SRCE?

Key metric: As SRCE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SRCE. This is calculated by dividing SRCE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SRCE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.7x
EarningsUS$128.38m
Market CapUS$1.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SRCE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SRCE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
VBTX Veritex Holdings
19.1x16.1%US$1.6b
BUSE First Busey
14x39.9%US$1.6b
TCBK TriCo Bancshares
14.4x3.5%US$1.6b
RBCA.A Republic Bancorp
14.8x3.1%US$1.5b
SRCE 1st Source
12.7x-1.3%US$1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SRCE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SRCE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
SRCE 12.7xIndustry Avg. 13.2xNo. of Companies92PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SRCE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the US Banks industry average (13.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SRCE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SRCE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.7x
Fair PE Ratio11.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SRCE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SRCE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$66.29
US$63.67
-4.0%
2.0%US$65.00US$62.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$59.45
US$63.67
+7.1%
2.0%US$65.00US$62.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$57.78
US$62.33
+7.9%
3.3%US$65.00US$60.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$61.45
US$63.83
+3.9%
4.1%US$67.50US$62.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$62.49
US$63.83
+2.1%
4.1%US$67.50US$62.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$53.48
US$55.67
+4.1%
5.6%US$60.00US$53.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$51.42
US$55.67
+8.3%
5.6%US$60.00US$53.00n/a3
May ’25US$50.60
US$55.67
+10.0%
5.6%US$60.00US$53.00n/a3
Apr ’25US$51.44
US$56.00
+8.9%
4.4%US$59.00US$53.00n/a3
Mar ’25US$48.61
US$56.67
+16.6%
5.8%US$61.00US$53.00n/a3
Feb ’25US$51.93
US$56.67
+9.1%
5.8%US$61.00US$53.00n/a3
Jan ’25US$54.95
US$52.67
-4.2%
10.1%US$59.00US$46.00n/a3
Dec ’24US$49.98
US$50.00
+0.04%
5.9%US$53.00US$46.00n/a3
Nov ’24US$45.48
US$50.00
+9.9%
5.9%US$53.00US$46.00US$59.453
Oct ’24US$42.09
US$48.67
+15.6%
7.6%US$53.00US$44.00US$57.783
Sep ’24US$45.88
US$48.67
+6.1%
7.6%US$53.00US$44.00US$61.453
Aug ’24US$47.05
US$48.67
+3.4%
7.6%US$53.00US$44.00US$62.493
Jul ’24US$41.93
US$46.33
+10.5%
4.1%US$49.00US$45.00US$53.483
Jun ’24US$41.85
US$46.67
+11.5%
5.1%US$50.00US$45.00US$51.423
May ’24US$41.20
US$46.67
+13.3%
5.1%US$50.00US$45.00US$50.603
Apr ’24US$43.15
US$51.33
+19.0%
4.0%US$54.00US$49.00US$51.443
Mar ’24US$49.56
US$52.67
+6.3%
7.3%US$58.00US$49.00US$48.613
Feb ’24US$49.48
US$52.67
+6.4%
7.3%US$58.00US$49.00US$51.933
Jan ’24US$53.09
US$56.00
+5.5%
10.2%US$64.00US$51.00US$54.953
Dec ’23US$56.44
US$56.00
-0.8%
10.2%US$64.00US$51.00US$49.983
Nov ’23US$58.70
US$56.00
-4.6%
10.2%US$64.00US$51.00US$45.483

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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