First National Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

First National is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 59.5% and 27% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 42.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 12.3% in 3 years.

Key information

59.5%

Earnings growth rate

42.4%

EPS growth rate

Banks earnings growth	10.8%
Revenue growth rate	27.0%
Future return on equity	12.3%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	04 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $0.155

Nov 19

First National's (NASDAQ:FXNC) Dividend Will Be $0.15

Aug 20

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.15

May 14

Here's Why It's Unlikely That First National Corporation's (NASDAQ:FXNC) CEO Will See A Pay Rise This Year

May 02

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To US$0.14

May 17

First National's (NASDAQ:FXNC) Dividend Will Be Increased To US$0.14

Feb 15

First National goes ex-dividend tomorrow

May 26

Here's Why I Think First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Is An Interesting Stock

May 04

First National reports Q1 results

Apr 30

Gerald Smith Is The Independent Vice Chairman & Secretary of the Board of First National Corporation (NASDAQ:FXNC) And They Just Picked Up 3.3% More Shares

Mar 21

How Does First National Corporation (NASDAQ:FXNC) Stand Up To These Simple Dividend Safety Checks?

Mar 12

Is First National's (NASDAQ:FXNC) Share Price Gain Of 100% Well Earned?

Feb 04

First National reports Q4 results

Jan 29

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqCM:FXNC - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	97	24	N/A	N/A	1
12/31/2025	92	21	N/A	N/A	1
12/31/2024	65	8	N/A	N/A	1
9/30/2024	49	7	16	20	N/A
6/30/2024	49	8	15	17	N/A
3/31/2024	49	9	15	17	N/A
12/31/2023	49	10	15	16	N/A
9/30/2023	56	15	20	21	N/A
6/30/2023	57	17	21	22	N/A
3/31/2023	57	17	22	23	N/A
12/31/2022	56	17	26	27	N/A
9/30/2022	54	14	12	12	N/A
6/30/2022	52	12	20	21	N/A
3/31/2022	49	12	11	11	N/A
12/31/2021	46	10	7	8	N/A
9/30/2021	43	11	18	18	N/A
6/30/2021	39	11	10	10	N/A
3/31/2021	36	10	16	17	N/A
12/31/2020	35	9	14	15	N/A
9/30/2020	34	8	13	14	N/A
6/30/2020	35	9	11	12	N/A
3/31/2020	35	9	11	12	N/A
12/31/2019	36	10	11	12	N/A
9/30/2019	36	9	9	10	N/A
6/30/2019	36	9	10	12	N/A
3/31/2019	36	10	11	12	N/A
12/31/2018	36	10	12	14	N/A
9/30/2018	35	9	10	11	N/A
6/30/2018	34	8	N/A	9	N/A
3/31/2018	34	8	N/A	8	N/A
12/31/2017	33	6	N/A	7	N/A
9/30/2017	33	7	N/A	8	N/A
6/30/2017	32	7	N/A	10	N/A
3/31/2017	32	6	N/A	10	N/A
12/31/2016	32	6	N/A	9	N/A
9/30/2016	31	5	N/A	8	N/A
6/30/2016	31	4	N/A	6	N/A
3/31/2016	30	2	N/A	5	N/A
12/31/2015	29	2	N/A	5	N/A
9/30/2015	32	4	N/A	5	N/A
6/30/2015	30	5	N/A	6	N/A
3/31/2015	30	6	N/A	7	N/A
12/31/2014	30	6	N/A	7	N/A
9/30/2014	28	10	N/A	6	N/A
6/30/2014	27	10	N/A	5	N/A
3/31/2014	25	9	N/A	6	N/A
12/31/2013	25	9	N/A	9	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FXNC's forecast earnings growth (59.5% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: FXNC's earnings (59.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (15.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FXNC's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FXNC's revenue (27% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (9.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FXNC's revenue (27% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FXNC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/24 22:26
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

First National Corporation is covered by 3 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Allan Bach	Davenport & Company
David Bishop	Hovde Group, LLC
John Rodis	Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

First National Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target increased by 7.3% to US$25.75

Price target increased by 14% to US$21.00

Price target decreased by 12% to US$18.50

Price target increased by 17% to US$21.00

Recent updates

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

Price target increased by 7.3% to US$25.75

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $0.155

Third quarter dividend increased to US$0.15

First National Corporation Announces Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on December 13, 2024

Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.36 (vs US$0.50 in 3Q 2023)

First National's (NASDAQ:FXNC) Dividend Will Be $0.15

Second quarter dividend of US$0.15 announced

Price target increased by 14% to US$21.00

First National Corporation Reports Net Charge-Offs for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2024

Independent Director recently bought US$117k worth of stock

Independent Director recently bought US$54k worth of stock

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.15

First quarter dividend of US$0.15 announced

Independent Director recently bought US$64k worth of stock

First National Corporation Reports Net Charge-Offs for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024

Here's Why It's Unlikely That First National Corporation's (NASDAQ:FXNC) CEO Will See A Pay Rise This Year

First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.51 (vs US$0.61 in 1Q 2023)

New minor risk - Market cap size

First National Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2024

Price target decreased by 12% to US$18.50

First National Corporation (NasdaqCM:FXNC) entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Touchstone Bankshares, Inc. (OTCPK:TSBA) for $46.9 million.

First National Corporation (NasdaqCM:FXNC) entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Touchstone Bankshares, Inc. (OTCPK:TSBA) for $46.9 million.

First National Corporation (NasdaqCM:FXNC) entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Touchstone Bankshares, Inc. (OTCPK:TSBA) for $47.3 million.

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.15

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.15 announced

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$1.54 (vs US$2.69 in FY 2022)

Price target increased by 17% to US$21.00

First National Corporation Reports Net Charge Offs for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2023

Insufficient new directors

Upcoming dividend of US$0.15 per share at 3.2% yield

First National Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on December 8, 2023

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.50 (vs US$0.71 in 3Q 2022)

First National Corporation Reports Net Charge-Offs for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2023

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15%

Upcoming dividend of US$0.15 per share at 3.5% yield

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.15

First National Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on September 8, 2023

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.56 (vs US$0.61 in 2Q 2022)

Upcoming dividend of US$0.15 per share at 4.0% yield

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.15

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$2.69 (vs US$1.87 in FY 2021)

First National's (NASDAQ:FXNC) Dividend Will Be Increased To $0.15

First National Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on March 10, 2023

First National Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on December 16, 2022

First National Corporation Reports Net Charge Offs for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2022

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$2.68 (vs US$1.87 in FY 2021)

First National Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on December 16, 2022

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

First National Corporation Announces Unaudited Net Charge Offs for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2022

Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.71 (vs US$0.39 in 3Q 2021)

First National goes ex-dividend tomorrow

First National Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on September 9, 2022

Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.61 (vs US$0.69 in 2Q 2021)

First National GAAP EPS of $0.61, revenue of $14.07M

Independent Director recently bought US$94k worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of US$0.14 per share

First National (NASDAQ:FXNC) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To US$0.14

First National Corporation Appoints Matt Paciocco as Senior Vice President and Regional Executive for Richmond, Virginia

First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

First National Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 11, 2022

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Upcoming dividend of US$0.14 per share

First National's (NASDAQ:FXNC) Dividend Will Be Increased To US$0.14

First National Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on March 11, 2022

First National Corporation Reports Net Charge-Offs for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2021

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.39 (vs US$0.36 in 3Q 2020)

Insufficient new directors

Upcoming dividend of US$0.12 per share