First National Corporation

NasdaqCM:FXNC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$145.5m

First National Valuation

Is FXNC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FXNC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FXNC ($22.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($45.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FXNC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FXNC?

Key metric: As FXNC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FXNC. This is calculated by dividing FXNC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FXNC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.5x
EarningsUS$7.05m
Market CapUS$145.45m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FXNC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FXNC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.2x
FRAF Franklin Financial Services
10.5xn/aUS$148.3m
CBNA Chain Bridge Bancorp
7.6x-0.1%US$158.8m
SFIG.A STAR Financial Group
6.4xn/aUS$153.5m
HNVR Hanover Bancorp
12.3x31.6%US$159.6m
FXNC First National
20.5x59.5%US$145.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FXNC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the peer average (9.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FXNC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
FXNC 20.5xIndustry Avg. 12.8xNo. of Companies75PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FXNC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the US Banks industry average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FXNC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FXNC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.5x
Fair PE Ratio25.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FXNC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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