First Citizens BancShares (FCNC.A): Evaluating Valuation as Trade Tensions Spark Investor Reassessment

First Citizens BancShares (FCNC.A) traded lower as US-China trade tensions intensified after President Trump signaled possible new tariffs on Chinese imports, and China introduced fresh export controls on critical minerals.

See our latest analysis for First Citizens BancShares.

After a strong multi-year run, momentum for First Citizens BancShares has cooled notably, with a sharp 30-day share price decline of 13.83 percent and a year-to-date drop of 19.06 percent as global trade tensions escalate. Even so, the company’s longer-term performance is impressive, boasting a 102.36 percent total shareholder return over three years and 339.47 percent over five years. This signals continued growth potential despite recent volatility.

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With shares now trading below analyst targets and at a notable discount to intrinsic value, investors are left wondering: Is First Citizens BancShares a bargain waiting to be realized, or does the market already reflect future gains?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.2% Undervalued

Compared to the latest close at $1,701.73, the most popular narrative values First Citizens BancShares much higher. This implies notable market mispricing and raises big-picture questions about why this gap exists.

First Citizens BancShares is focusing on growth in its Commercial Bank and SVB Commercial segments, particularly through specialized industry verticals such as tech, media, and telecom. These areas are expected to drive future loan growth and, consequently, revenue. The company is leveraging its strong balance sheet and liquidity position to continue share repurchase programs. These programs are expected to improve earnings per share (EPS) significantly by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

Read the complete narrative.

What is fueling this sky-high fair value? The narrative points to unique growth segments, a shrinking share count, and major earnings moves behind the scenes. The full story suggests surprising financial levers and industry bets shaping the target. Do you want to see how far these assumptions can stretch the upside?

Result: Fair Value of $2,275 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued uncertainty around interest rates and potential credit losses, especially in commercial real estate, could challenge the optimistic growth narrative for First Citizens BancShares.

Find out about the key risks to this First Citizens BancShares narrative.

Build Your Own First Citizens BancShares Narrative

If you want to test the numbers yourself or come up with your own outlook, you can create your own narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your First Citizens BancShares research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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