A Look at ConnectOne Bancorp's (CNOB) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Slide

ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) has caught investor attention recently following a slide of about 7% over the past month. This drop stands out given the otherwise moderate performance for regional banks in the same period.

See our latest analysis for ConnectOne Bancorp.

Stepping back, ConnectOne Bancorp’s 1-year total shareholder return sits at -10.2%, reflecting a recent dip in momentum after a period of longer-term gains. Over the past five years, the company achieved an impressive 59.8% total return. While the 30-day share price return of -7.2% hints at short-term pressure, the broader picture suggests the stock has created substantial value for patient investors, even as near-term sentiment cools.

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But does the recent dip mean ConnectOne Bancorp is undervalued based on its fundamentals? Or is the market already factoring in its future prospects? Is there a genuine buying opportunity here, or is everything already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

With ConnectOne Bancorp's most followed valuation narrative pointing to a fair value of $29.12, the latest close at $23.29 implies notable upside ahead, given emerging growth levers and integration gains still to play out.

The recent merger with First of Long Island Bank has significantly expanded ConnectOne's geographic footprint and client base. This has increased its scale and enhanced market access, especially in high-growth Long Island, positioning the company to capture additional revenue opportunities from lending and deposit growth in economically vibrant metro areas. Successful integration and strong client retention post-merger, evidenced by record organic deposit growth and an improved loan-to-deposit ratio, demonstrate a robust relationship-focused banking model that addresses rising demand for personalized services among small and mid-sized business clients. This supports stickier deposits and stable net interest income.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what sets this valuation apart? There is a bold set of growth estimates and margin leaps baked in, plus a profit multiple unlike anything the sector has seen. Want to see what is propelling this forecast and how the numbers stack up if everything goes to plan? Unlock the full story for the financial logic and assumptions behind this ambitious target.

Result: Fair Value of $29.12 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a concentrated commercial real estate portfolio and slower digital innovation could dampen optimism if property values weaken or if client needs shift unexpectedly.

Find out about the key risks to this ConnectOne Bancorp narrative.

Build Your Own ConnectOne Bancorp Narrative

If you prefer hands-on research or see the story differently, you can analyze the data yourself and craft a custom narrative in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ConnectOne Bancorp research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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