M&T Bank NYSE:MTB Stock Report

M&T Bank: Regional Banking's Best Now Near-Term Cap-Gain Prospect

A 3-5 month prospect from here of MTB share prices could reasonably range from a $161.74 low to a $185.99 high from its present price of $168.96, a +10.1% gain. The result of 135 positions like today’s in the past 5 years of 1261 market days was 25.9% average net gains during 45 market days (9 weeks), a +264% CAGR. Those holding periods had worst price drawdowns of only -7.0%. These articles are intended to provide readers with equity investment subjects -- stocks, ETFs, REITs -- which probably may experience rising market prices in next 3-5 months: Near-term expectations only. They are drawn from a 3,000+ equity population updated daily which infers “Institutional”[big-$] investor coming-price influences from recent-past volume block-trade orders facilitated by Market-Makers. M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is the primary subject of this article. Investment Portfolio Discipline Summary “Blockdesk’s Standard Performance Comparison fund invests in equities whenever Market-Maker hedging activity forecasts that 80% or more of the near-coming price range is expected to be to the upside and 10% or less may be to the downside. This is a guide to the balance of expectations since coming price change directions tend to be led by prior extremes, issue by issue. At the time of each purchase, a GTC sell order for all of those just bought shares is placed with the broker where bought. His system will monitor and direct to you the sale confirmation when accomplished, probably with encouragement for reinvestment. At the time of the buy, only on your own personal private calendar at 3 months after the purchase, make a note to review this holding. If not yet sold, but at a loss, sell and put the proceeds into the reinvestment stream. If at a gain, after considering alternatives, decide to sell or move the calendar note a month further forward”. Description of Primary Investment Candidate “M&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company that provides commercial and retail banking services. The company's Business Banking segment offers deposit, lending, cash management, and other financial services to small businesses and professionals. Its Retail Banking segment offers demand, savings, and time accounts; consumer installment loans, automobile and recreational finance loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, and credit cards; mutual funds and annuities; and other services. The company also provides trust and wealth management; fiduciary and custodial; insurance agency; institutional brokerage and securities; and investment management services. It offers its services through banking offices, business banking centers, telephone and internet banking, and automated teller machines. As of December 31, 2021, the company operates 688 domestic banking offices in New York State, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; and a full-service commercial banking office in Ontario, Canada. M&T Bank Corporation was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.” Source: Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance These growth estimates have been made by and are collected from Wall Street analysts to suggest what conventional methodology currently produces. The typical variations across forecast horizons of different time periods illustrate the difficulty of making value comparisons when the forecast horizon is not clearly defined. Risk and Reward Balances Among MTB Competitors Here are several Regional Banking services like MTB. Following the same analysis as with MTB, historic sampling of their prior Risk-Reward balances like those of today were taken and are mapped out in Figure 1. Figure 1 blockdesk.com (used with permission) Expected rewards for these securities are the greatest gains from current closing market price seen worth protecting MM short positions. Their measure is on the horizontal green scale. The risk dimension is of actual price drawdowns at their most extreme point while being held in previous pursuit of upside rewards similar to the ones currently being seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale. Both scales are of percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose present risk exposure exceeds its reward prospect will be above the dotted diagonal line. Capital gain attractive to buy issues are in the directions down and to the right. Our principal interest is in MTB at location [3]. A "market index" norm of reward~risk tradeoffs is offered by SPY at [4]. Most appealing (to own) by this Figure 1 view is [[COF]] [2]. Comparing features of Alternative Investment Stocks The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every equity investment in the short term. There are other aspects of comparison which this map sometimes does not communicate well, particularly when general market perspectives like those of SPY are involved. Where questions of 'how likely' are present, other comparative tables, like Figure 2, may be useful. Yellow highlighting of the table's cells emphasizes factors important to securities valuations and the security MTB, most promising of near capital gain as ranked in column [R]. Figure 2 blockdesk.com (used with permission) Why do all this math? Figure 2's purpose is to attempt universally comparable answers, stock by stock, of a) How BIG the prospective price gain payoff may be, b) how LIKELY the payoff will be a profitable experience, c) how SOON it may happen, and d) what price drawdown RISK may be encountered during its holding period. Readers familiar with our analysis methods after quick examination of Figure 2 may wish to skip to the next section viewing Price range forecast trends for MTB. Column headers for Figure 2 define investment-choice preference elements for each row stock whose symbol appears at the left in column [A]. The elements are derived or calculated separately for each stock, based on the specifics of its situation and current-day MM price-range forecasts. Data in red numerals are negative, usually undesirable to "long" holding positions. Table cells with yellow fills are of data for the stocks of principal interest and of all issues at the ranking column [R]. The price-range forecast limits of columns [B] and [C] get defined by MM hedging actions to protect firm capital required to be put at risk of price changes from volume trade orders placed by big-$ "institutional" clients. [E] measures potential upside risks for MM short positions created to fill such orders, and reward potentials for the buy-side positions so created. Prior forecasts like the present provide a history of relevant price draw-down risks for buyers. The most severe ones actually encountered are in [F], during holding periods in an effort to reach [E] gains. Those are where buyers are emotionally most likely to accept losses. The Range Index [G] tells where today's price lies relative to the MM community's forecast of upper and lower limits of coming prices. Its numeric is the percentage proportion of the full low to high forecast seen below the current market price. [H] tells what proportion of the [L] sample of prior like-balance forecasts have earned gains by either having price reach its [B] target or be above its [D] entry cost at the end of a 3-month max-patience holding period limit. [I] gives the net gains-losses of those [L] experiences. What makes MTB most attractive in the group at this point in time is its high proportion of profitable outcomes – better than 3 of every 4, and their high prior upside prospects, higher than currently being offered in [E], now only +10%. The competition’s prior prospects had similar opportunities, but as evidenced now in [I], were not nearly as successful as MTB. Further Reward~Risk tradeoffs involve using the [H] odds for gains with the 100 - H loss odds as weights for N-conditioned [E] and for [F], for a combined-return score [Q]. The typical position holding period [J] on [Q] provides a figure of merit [fom] ranking measure [R] useful in portfolio position preferencing. Figure 2 is row-ranked on [R] among alternative candidate securities, with MTB in top rank. Along with the candidate-specific stocks, these selection considerations are provided for the averages of some 3000+ stocks for which MM price-range forecasts are available today, and 20 of the best-ranked (by fom) of those forecasts, as well as the forecast for S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) as an equity-market proxy. Current-market index SPY is not competitive as an investment alternative as its Range Index of 35 indicates. While 2/3rds of its forecast range are to the upside, little more than 3/4ths of previous SPY forecasts at this range index produced profitable outcomes, with enough losers to put its average in single-digit positive result, much like the bank competitors.