Earnings Miss: Civista Bancshares, Inc. Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Civista Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CIVB) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. Civista Bancshares missed earnings this time around, with US$37m revenue coming in 3.8% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 also fell short of expectations by 11%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Civista Bancshares

Taking into account the latest results, Civista Bancshares' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$152.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 20% to US$1.78 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$157.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.99 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 11% to US$17.00, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Civista Bancshares analyst has a price target of US$18.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Civista Bancshares' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Civista Bancshares.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Civista Bancshares. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Civista Bancshares' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Civista Bancshares going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Civista Bancshares that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.