Analysts Are Updating Their BayCom Corp (NASDAQ:BCML) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

The full-year results for BayCom Corp (NASDAQ:BCML) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$101m and statutory earnings per share of US$2.06 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that BayCom is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for BayCom

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BayCom's three analysts is for revenues of US$108.0m in 2023, which would reflect a modest 6.6% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to US$2.48. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$111.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.46 in 2023. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of US$24.00, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker sales expectations next year to have a material impact on BayCom's market value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BayCom at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$23.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that BayCom is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BayCom's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 6.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like BayCom is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Sadly, they also downgraded their sales forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BayCom. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for BayCom going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for BayCom that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.