Earnings Report: Ameris Bancorp Missed Revenue Estimates By 6.4%

As you might know, Ameris Bancorp (NASDAQ:ABCB) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 6.4% short of analyst estimates at US$1.0b, and statutory earnings of US$4.99 per share missed forecasts by 3.1%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Ameris Bancorp

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ameris Bancorp's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.16b in 2023, which would reflect a solid 14% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 5.2% to US$5.27. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.39 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 7.5% to US$60.20, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Ameris Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$63.00 and the most bearish at US$56.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Ameris Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Ameris Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Ameris Bancorp going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Ameris Bancorp that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.