Analysts Are Updating Their XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) Estimates After Its Yearly Results

As you might know, XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) recently reported its yearly numbers. Revenue hit CN¥41b in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of CN¥6.12 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for XPeng from 36 analysts is for revenues of CN¥80.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 97% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 50% to CN¥3.08. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥80.0b and losses of CN¥3.06 per share in 2025.

View our latest analysis for XPeng

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$24.87, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic XPeng analyst has a price target of US$31.67 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.89. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that XPeng's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 97% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 38% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that XPeng is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for XPeng going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for XPeng that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.