Winnebago Industries (NYSE:WGO) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of WGO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

WGO ($49.12) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($76.75)

WGO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	2/6

WGO Stock Overview

Winnebago Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells recreation vehicles and marine products primarily for use in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities.

Rewards

Trading at 36% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 35.2% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 16.3% per year for the next 3 years

Winnebago Industries Competitors

Thor Industries

NYSE:THO

US$4.2b

Ferrari

NYSE:RACE

US$34.4b

Li Auto

NasdaqGS:LI

US$36.4b

General Motors

NYSE:GM

US$46.9b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Winnebago Industries
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$49.12
52 Week High	US$80.30
52 Week Low	US$43.05
Beta	1.71
1 Month Change	0.70%
3 Month Change	-7.44%
1 Year Change	-27.25%
3 Year Change	27.98%
5 Year Change	41.35%
Change since IPO	1,727.72%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 30

Are Investors Undervaluing Winnebago Industries, Inc. (NYSE:WGO) By 30%?

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Winnebago Industries, Inc. ( NYSE:WGO ) by taking the...

Jun 17

With EPS Growth And More, Winnebago Industries (NYSE:WGO) Makes An Interesting Case

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...

Shareholder Returns

	WGO	US Auto	US Market
7D	-4.2%	-8.2%	-2.5%
1Y	-27.3%	-13.6%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: WGO underperformed the US Auto industry which returned -14.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: WGO underperformed the US Market which returned -21.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is WGO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
WGO volatility
WGO Average Weekly Movement	7.4%
Auto Industry Average Movement	13.3%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: WGO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: WGO's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1958	6,532	Mike Happe	https://www.winnebagoind.com

Winnebago Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells recreation vehicles and marine products primarily for use in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The company operates in six segments: Grand Design Towables, Winnebago Towables, Winnebago Motorhomes, Newmar motorhomes, Chris-Craft Marine, and Winnebago Specialty Vehicles. It provides towable products that are non-motorized vehicles to be towed by automobiles, pickup trucks, SUVs, or vans for use as temporary living quarters for recreational travel, such as conventional travel trailers, fifth wheels, folding camper trailers, and truck campers under the Winnebago and Grand Design brand names.

Winnebago Industries Fundamentals Summary

How do Winnebago Industries's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
WGO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.56b
Earnings (TTM)	US$392.11m
Revenue (TTM)	US$4.81b

4.0x

P/E Ratio

0.3x

P/S Ratio

Is WGO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
WGO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$4.81b
Cost of Revenue	US$3.91b
Gross Profit	US$906.12m
Other Expenses	US$514.01m
Earnings	US$392.11m

Last Reported Earnings

May 28, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	12.35
Gross Margin	18.82%
Net Profit Margin	8.14%
Debt/Equity Ratio	42.8%

How did WGO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.5%

Current Dividend Yield

6%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is WGO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WGO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for WGO. This is calculated by dividing WGO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is WGO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$1.56b

WGO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3x
PEG Ratio	-0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WGO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

WGO PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for WGO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2217x
THO Thor Industries	3.8x	-41.3%	US$4.2b
RACE Ferrari	38.2x	13.4%	US$34.4b
LI Li Auto	8820.8x	66.5%	US$36.4b
GM General Motors	5.3x	6.2%	US$46.9b
WGO Winnebago Industries	4x	-16.3%	US$1.6b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WGO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the peer average (2217x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WGO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WGO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the US Auto industry average (14.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WGO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WGO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4x
Fair PE Ratio	9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WGO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WGO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WGO ($49.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($76.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WGO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: WGO's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Winnebago Industries forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-16.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: WGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.3% per year).

Earnings vs Market: WGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: WGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: WGO's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-3.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: WGO's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.5% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: WGO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.7%).

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Past Performance

How has Winnebago Industries performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

35.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: WGO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: WGO's current net profit margins (8.1%) are higher than last year (7.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: WGO's earnings have grown significantly by 35.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: WGO's earnings growth over the past year (63.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (35.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: WGO earnings growth over the past year (63.8%) underperformed the Auto industry 81%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: WGO's Return on Equity (31%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Winnebago Industries's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: WGO's short term assets ($1.1B) exceed its short term liabilities ($536.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: WGO's short term assets ($1.1B) exceed its long term liabilities ($627.3M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: WGO's net debt to equity ratio (24%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: WGO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 69% to 42.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: WGO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (61.8%).

Interest Coverage: WGO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (14x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Winnebago Industries's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.47%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: WGO's dividend (1.47%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.61%).

High Dividend: WGO's dividend (1.47%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.3%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, WGO has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: WGO's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 8 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (5.6%), WGO's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (9.1%), WGO's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mike Happe (51 yo)

6.42yrs

Tenure

US$6,649,186

Compensation

Mr. Michael J. Happe, also known as Mike, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Winnebago Industries, Inc. since January 18, 2016 and serves as its President since January 1, 2016. He is an Independent D...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mike's total compensation ($USD6.65M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.57M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mike's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: WGO's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: WGO's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/01 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/05/28
Annual Earnings	2021/08/28