A Fresh Look at Harley-Davidson (HOG) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Recovery

Harley-Davidson (HOG) shares ended the most recent session slightly up, closing at $28.37. Over the past month, the stock has slipped 6%, but has delivered a gain of 15% over the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson.

Harley-Davidson’s recent upturn comes after a period of mixed momentum. While the share price advanced 15% over the last three months, the bigger picture shows that total shareholder returns are still negative over the past year. This points to a story of improvement but not an outright turnaround yet.

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Given Harley-Davidson’s recent gains but mixed long-term results, the big question is whether today’s valuation reflects a hidden bargain or if investors have already factored in all future growth. Could this be a true buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.3% Undervalued

Harley-Davidson’s last close at $28.37 suggests the shares trade slightly under the narrative’s fair value estimate of $29.33, which sets the stage for a strategic inflection point. The story hinges on significant moves beyond classic bikes, focusing on key business initiatives that could influence the company's future.

*The new partnership in HDFS unlocks significant cash ($1.25B) and reduces leverage. This enables accelerated share buybacks and frees up $300M for growth investments. These actions can directly bolster EPS and future revenue streams through both financial engineering and new business initiatives. Harley-Davidson's entrance into the lower-priced, small displacement motorcycle segment, with a new model targeting a sub-$6,000 entry price and profitable unit economics, positions the company to capture emerging growth in affordability-driven motorcycle demand and reach new, younger buyer segments. This supports long-term revenue growth and market share expansion.*

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what bold assumptions drive this price target? The narrative leans heavily on market expansion and evolving margins. Curious which future shifts could change Harley’s value story forever? Read on for the projections behind this estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $29.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistently weak consumer demand and the slow adoption of electric motorcycles could quickly undermine Harley-Davidson’s current growth expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Harley-Davidson narrative.

Build Your Own Harley-Davidson Narrative

If you would rather chart your own path or want to challenge this perspective, you can dive into the data and craft your own in just a few minutes, then Do it your way

A great starting point for your Harley-Davidson research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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