Ford Motor (F): Valuation Spotlight Following Six Months of EV-Driven U.S. Sales Gains

Ford Motor (F) is in the spotlight once again after notching its sixth straight month of U.S. sales gains, a stretch fueled by brisk demand for EVs as buyers hurried to take advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit before its expiration. This surge is not just a blip. It is a clear sign that consumer incentives can accelerate adoption and, in turn, influence business fundamentals. The focus now is whether Ford’s appearance at the upcoming Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference will reveal how management views this pivotal sales moment as shaping long-term growth.

Looking at the broader picture, the market has not ignored this momentum. Over the past year, Ford’s stock delivered a 19% return, even if it trailed the broader market. The boost fits into a longer-term narrative as well. Ford moved from losses to profitability over the last five years and delivered a 115% total shareholder return in that period, including dividends. Recent EV excitement, along with solid SUV sales, suggests that Ford is operating from a position of strength, although the end of tax credits could present challenges in the coming months.

With shares rising and Ford’s growth story back in the headlines, some investors may be asking whether the stock is still undervalued or if the recent good news is already reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 18.5% Overvalued

According to the narrative, Ford shares are currently trading above their calculated fair value, suggesting the stock is overvalued by nearly 19% using a 10.74% discount rate.

"With Ford scaling back its pure EV ambitions and focusing more on hybrids, I anticipate that the sales volumes may not decline as sharply as initially thought. However, the pivot indicates a strategic retreat rather than a position of strength. I remain cautious about significant growth in automotive revenues."

Wondering what’s driving this cautious valuation? The narrative is packed with bold assumptions, recalibrated forecasts, and a hint of unexpected profit margin recovery. Curious how Ford’s pivot from EVs to hybrids and revised growth forecasts shape the new fair value? Dig deeper to discover which numbers tip the scale and why the current share price could be outpacing the company’s true financial trajectory.

Result: Fair Value of $9.70 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a breakthrough in EV technology or an unexpected improvement in credit conditions could quickly alter Ford’s outlook and challenge this cautious valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Ford Motor narrative.

Another View: Are Market Comparisons Telling a Different Story?

While the user-driven narrative sees Ford as overvalued, a look at how shares are priced versus industry benchmarks offers a different angle. In this light, Ford trades at a discount compared to peers. Might the market be underestimating Ford’s future moves?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Ford Motor to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Ford Motor Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to reach your own conclusions, it takes just a few minutes to build your own perspective on Ford’s outlook. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ford Motor research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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