Ford (F) Valuation Check After $19.5 Billion EV Reset and Strategy Pivot Toward Hybrids and Affordable EVs

Ford Motor (F) just hit the reset button on its electrification strategy, shelving several big ticket EV projects, including the current F 150 Lightning, and pivoting hard toward hybrids, extended range models, and smaller, cheaper EVs.

See our latest analysis for Ford Motor.

Investors have largely looked through the short term noise, with the share price up strongly this year. It has delivered a year to date share price return of 37.93% and a one year total shareholder return of 47.54%, even as Ford absorbs hefty EV write downs and reshapes its alliances in batteries and European EVs.

If Ford’s pivot has you rethinking the whole auto space, it could be worth exploring other auto manufacturers that might offer a different balance of growth, income and electrification risk.

With the stock now trading above some analyst targets and a hefty $19.5 billion EV reset looming, is Ford still a classic value play in transition, or has the market already priced in its next chapter of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.4% Overvalued

With Ford’s last close at $13.31 versus a narrative fair value of $12.52, the widely followed view sees only modest downside from here, hinging heavily on how quickly earnings can scale.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $10.8 for Ford Motor based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $16.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $8.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of margin expansion and earnings surge could underpin that valuation gap, and why revenue is still expected to drift? The full narrative spells out the growth runway, the compression in future multiples, and the precise assumptions that turn today’s price into a tight call on fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $12.52 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent EV division losses, as well as tariff or trade setbacks, could still undermine Ford’s margin recovery and challenge the current valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Ford Motor narrative.

Another Lens on Value

On earnings, Ford looks cheap. It trades on about 11.3 times profits versus 18.7 times for the global auto sector, and a fair ratio of 26.9 times implied by our regression work. That wide gap hints at either a value opportunity or a warning the market sees something investors are missing.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ford Motor Narrative

If you want to dig into the numbers yourself rather than lean on this view, you can build a fresh narrative in under three minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ford Motor research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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