Tesla (TSLA): Revisiting Long-Term Valuation After a Strong Multi-Year Share Price Run

Tesla (TSLA) has quietly pushed higher, with the stock up about 19% over the past month and 13% in the past 3 months, as investors revisit its long term growth story.

See our latest analysis for Tesla.

That momentum sits on top of a much stronger backdrop, with the share price up about 27% year to date and a three year total shareholder return nearing 291%, as investors refocus on Tesla’s long term growth optionality and execution risk.

If Tesla’s run has you rethinking the auto space, it might be worth scanning other electric and traditional car makers through our curated auto manufacturers.

Yet with the stock now trading above consensus price targets and long term returns already substantial, investors face a key question: is Tesla still undervalued on its next decade of growth, or is the market already pricing it in?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.1% Overvalued

With Tesla closing at $481.20 against a narrative fair value of $425.37, the story assumes today’s price already leans ahead of fundamentals while still framing huge optionality.

If Tesla executes on these high-growth, high-margin opportunities, it could reach a multi-trillion-dollar valuation by 2035, making today’s sentiment-driven sell-off an attractive buying opportunity.you can view my valuation model and assumptions here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VsYZE6TRMpp_j7ba9NDZCNqBBRGYYlJa1w7D9WTLvY0/edit?usp=sharing

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how automotive growth, new mobility revenues, premium margins and a rich future earnings multiple all stack up into that bold target? The most intriguing assumptions sit beneath the headline numbers, and they might surprise anyone still viewing Tesla as just an automaker.

Result: Fair Value of $425.37 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, those ambitious AI and robotics assumptions still face real execution and regulatory risks that could delay robotaxis, compress margins, and derail today’s bullish narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Tesla narrative.

Build Your Own Tesla Narrative

If you see the future differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a personalized Tesla story in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Tesla research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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