Lucid (LCID): Revisiting the EV Maker’s Valuation After a Steep Share Price Slide

Lucid Group (LCID) has been grinding through a rough stretch in the market, and that slide is forcing investors to revisit the core EV thesis. Let us break down what the latest performance actually signals.

See our latest analysis for Lucid Group.

Over the past year, Lucid’s shrinking 1 year total shareholder return and steep year to date share price decline suggest momentum is clearly fading as investors reassess execution risk and the pace of future growth.

If Lucid’s recent volatility has you rethinking your EV exposure, it could be worth scanning other auto manufacturers to spot where the market sees more durable momentum and stronger fundamentals.

With the share price deeply in the red and analyst targets sitting far higher, investors are left weighing whether Lucid is now trading below its true potential or if the market already reflects its long road to profitable growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 37.5% Undervalued

With Lucid Group trading at $11.52 against a most popular narrative fair value near $18.43, the story hinges on aggressive long term scaling and margins.

The upcoming launch of Lucid's midsized EV platform in late 2026 targets a much broader customer base with lower cost, high volume vehicles, directly expanding Lucid's addressable market and providing operating leverage for stronger top line revenue growth and improved net margins as scale increases.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how fast revenue must climb, how margins must swing positive, and what future earnings multiple ties it all together? The full narrative reveals the bold roadmap behind that valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $18.43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent losses and ongoing capital needs, including potential future dilution, could derail margin expansion and challenge the long term undervaluation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Lucid Group narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Flash a Different Signal

While the narrative model points to Lucid being undervalued, the market is telling a tougher story. At about 3.5 times sales versus 0.7 times for the US auto sector and 1.4 times for peers, and above a fair ratio of 0, buyers are paying a big premium for a still unprofitable business. Is that gap a contrarian opportunity or a warning sign?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Lucid Group Narrative

If you want to challenge this view or dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh Lucid story in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Lucid Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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