Revenue Downgrade: Here's What Analysts Forecast For Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR)

The analysts covering Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for next year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Luminar Technologies' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$195m in 2024, which would reflect a substantial 257% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 28% to US$1.02. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$244m and US$0.93 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

Check out our latest analysis for Luminar Technologies

The consensus price target fell 8.8% to US$10.13, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Luminar Technologies' valuation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Luminar Technologies' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 177% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 45% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Luminar Technologies is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Luminar Technologies. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to next year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Luminar Technologies going forwards.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Luminar Technologies analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.