Stock Analysis

A Look At The Fair Value Of Standard Chem & Pharm CO., LTD. (TPE:1720)

TWSE:1720
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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Standard Chem & Pharm CO., LTD. (TPE:1720) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Standard Chem & Pharm

Is Standard Chem & Pharm fairly valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Levered FCF (NT$, Millions) NT$388.0m NT$379.4m NT$374.5m NT$372.0m NT$371.2m NT$371.6m NT$372.8m NT$374.6m NT$376.7m NT$379.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Est @ -2.21% Est @ -1.3% Est @ -0.66% Est @ -0.21% Est @ 0.1% Est @ 0.32% Est @ 0.47% Est @ 0.58% Est @ 0.65%
Present Value (NT$, Millions) Discounted @ 5.8% NT$367 NT$339 NT$316 NT$297 NT$280 NT$265 NT$251 NT$239 NT$227 NT$216

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = NT$2.8b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NT$379m× (1 + 0.8%) ÷ (5.8%– 0.8%) = NT$7.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= NT$7.7b÷ ( 1 + 5.8%)10= NT$4.4b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NT$7.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of NT$37.1, the company appears about fair value at a 7.5% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
TSEC:1720 Discounted Cash Flow March 15th 2021

The assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Standard Chem & Pharm as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.813. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Standard Chem & Pharm, we've compiled three fundamental aspects you should further research:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 1 warning sign for Standard Chem & Pharm we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 1720's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSEC every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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