Thai Oil Public Company Limited

SET:TOP Stock Report

Market Cap: ฿88.2b

Thai Oil Valuation

Is TOP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOP (THB39.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (THB20.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOP?

Key metric: As TOP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TOP. This is calculated by dividing TOP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TOP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.7x
Earnings฿10.14b
Market Cap฿88.24b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28x
BCP Bangchak Corporation
61.4x64.3%฿42.3b
BBGI BBGI
28.4xn/a฿6.4b
SUSCO Susco
13.4xn/a฿3.0b
AI Asian Insulators
8.7xn/a฿2.6b
TOP Thai Oil
8.7x20.6%฿88.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the peer average (28x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Oil and Gas Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TOP 8.7xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies36PE0816243240+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the Asian Oil and Gas industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.7x
Fair PE Ratio8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current฿39.50
฿53.53
+35.5%
22.7%฿73.50฿37.00n/a19
Nov ’25฿41.50
฿57.37
+38.2%
21.2%฿75.00฿37.00n/a19
Oct ’25฿51.00
฿64.35
+26.2%
13.8%฿78.50฿45.00n/a18
Sep ’25฿53.00
฿65.04
+22.7%
11.0%฿78.50฿54.00n/a19
Aug ’25฿51.50
฿65.49
+27.2%
10.8%฿78.00฿54.00n/a19
Jul ’25฿54.00
฿65.81
+21.9%
10.6%฿78.00฿54.00n/a19
Jun ’25฿51.75
฿65.91
+27.4%
9.9%฿78.00฿55.00n/a20
May ’25฿54.50
฿66.48
+22.0%
7.7%฿75.00฿56.80n/a20
Apr ’25฿58.00
฿66.28
+14.3%
7.9%฿75.00฿56.80n/a20
Mar ’25฿55.75
฿65.43
+17.4%
8.0%฿75.00฿56.80n/a19
Feb ’25฿54.25
฿62.91
+16.0%
8.0%฿70.90฿55.00n/a19
Jan ’25฿53.75
฿62.01
+15.4%
9.0%฿70.90฿52.00n/a19
Dec ’24฿51.25
฿62.01
+21.0%
9.4%฿70.90฿52.00n/a18
Nov ’24฿46.50
฿62.23
+33.8%
9.1%฿70.90฿52.00฿41.5018
Oct ’24฿50.50
฿61.29
+21.4%
13.4%฿78.00฿40.00฿51.0018
Sep ’24฿51.50
฿60.72
+17.9%
15.8%฿78.00฿39.00฿53.0019
Aug ’24฿51.25
฿59.95
+17.0%
16.2%฿78.00฿39.00฿51.5019
Jul ’24฿44.25
฿59.01
+33.4%
17.0%฿78.00฿39.00฿54.0019
Jun ’24฿43.75
฿59.80
+36.7%
15.5%฿78.00฿39.00฿51.7519
May ’24฿46.50
฿62.61
+34.6%
13.6%฿78.00฿47.00฿54.5017
Apr ’24฿52.50
฿63.08
+20.2%
13.8%฿78.00฿47.00฿58.0017
Mar ’24฿51.25
฿61.94
+20.9%
15.2%฿78.00฿46.00฿55.7519
Feb ’24฿58.50
฿61.16
+4.5%
15.6%฿78.00฿45.00฿54.2518
Jan ’24฿56.25
฿61.63
+9.6%
16.3%฿78.00฿43.00฿53.7519
Dec ’23฿56.50
฿61.65
+9.1%
15.9%฿78.00฿43.00฿51.2520
Nov ’23฿55.00
฿59.92
+8.9%
16.9%฿78.00฿43.00฿46.5019

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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