Thai Oil Public Company Limited

SET:TOP Stock Report

Market Cap: ฿117.8b

Thai Oil Valuation

Is TOP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOP (THB52.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (THB76.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TOP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7x
PEG Ratio0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25x
BCP Bangchak Corporation
4.1x-4.8%฿50.6b
SPRC Star Petroleum Refining
23.6x26.9%฿35.3b
BSRC Bangchak Sriracha
8.2x22.8%฿28.9b
BBGI BBGI
64xn/a฿10.3b
TOP Thai Oil
5.7x8.6%฿117.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the peer average (25x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the TH Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-1.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-1.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the TH Oil and Gas industry average (9.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.7x
Fair PE Ratio9.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current฿52.75
฿65.49
+24.2%
10.8%฿78.00฿54.00n/a19
Jul ’25฿54.00
฿65.81
+21.9%
10.6%฿78.00฿54.00n/a19
Jun ’25฿51.75
฿65.91
+27.4%
9.9%฿78.00฿55.00n/a20
May ’25฿54.50
฿66.48
+22.0%
7.7%฿75.00฿56.80n/a20
Apr ’25฿58.00
฿66.28
+14.3%
7.9%฿75.00฿56.80n/a20
Mar ’25฿55.75
฿65.43
+17.4%
8.0%฿75.00฿56.80n/a19
Feb ’25฿54.25
฿62.91
+16.0%
8.0%฿70.90฿55.00n/a19
Jan ’25฿53.75
฿62.01
+15.4%
9.0%฿70.90฿52.00n/a19
Dec ’24฿51.25
฿62.01
+21.0%
9.4%฿70.90฿52.00n/a18
Nov ’24฿46.50
฿62.23
+33.8%
9.1%฿70.90฿52.00n/a18
Oct ’24฿50.50
฿61.29
+21.4%
13.4%฿78.00฿40.00n/a18
Sep ’24฿51.50
฿60.72
+17.9%
15.8%฿78.00฿39.00n/a19
Aug ’24฿51.25
฿59.95
+17.0%
16.2%฿78.00฿39.00n/a19
Jul ’24฿44.25
฿59.01
+33.4%
17.0%฿78.00฿39.00฿54.0019
Jun ’24฿43.75
฿59.80
+36.7%
15.5%฿78.00฿39.00฿51.7519
May ’24฿46.50
฿62.61
+34.6%
13.6%฿78.00฿47.00฿54.5017
Apr ’24฿52.50
฿63.08
+20.2%
13.8%฿78.00฿47.00฿58.0017
Mar ’24฿51.25
฿61.94
+20.9%
15.2%฿78.00฿46.00฿55.7519
Feb ’24฿58.50
฿61.16
+4.5%
15.6%฿78.00฿45.00฿54.2518
Jan ’24฿56.25
฿61.63
+9.6%
16.3%฿78.00฿43.00฿53.7519
Dec ’23฿56.50
฿61.65
+9.1%
15.9%฿78.00฿43.00฿51.2520
Nov ’23฿55.00
฿59.92
+8.9%
16.9%฿78.00฿43.00฿46.5019
Oct ’23฿51.25
฿65.06
+27.0%
10.9%฿78.00฿46.00฿50.5019
Sep ’23฿59.00
฿67.24
+14.0%
9.4%฿80.00฿54.00฿51.5019
Aug ’23฿51.50
฿64.40
+25.0%
10.2%฿80.00฿53.00฿51.2520
Jul ’23฿52.25
฿65.06
+24.5%
9.8%฿80.00฿54.00฿44.2520

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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