Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited

SET:BCP Stock Report

Market Cap: ฿49.9b

Bangchak Corporation Valuation

Is BCP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BCP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BCP (THB36.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value (THB111.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BCP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BCP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BCP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.4x
PEG Ratio-0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BCP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BCP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25x
SPRC Star Petroleum Refining
23.9x26.8%฿35.8b
BSRC Bangchak Sriracha
8.4x22.8%฿29.4b
TOP Thai Oil
5.7x8.6%฿117.3b
BBGI BBGI
62.2xn/a฿10.0b
BCP Bangchak Corporation
4x-4.8%฿49.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BCP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the peer average (25x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BCP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the TH Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-1.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-1.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BCP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the TH Oil and Gas industry average (9.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BCP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BCP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio4x
Fair PE Ratio6.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BCP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BCP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current฿36.25
฿50.64
+39.7%
7.6%฿58.00฿44.00n/a11
Jul ’25฿38.00
฿51.10
+34.5%
7.3%฿58.00฿44.00n/a10
Jun ’25฿38.25
฿50.34
+31.6%
8.6%฿58.00฿42.70n/a11
May ’25฿42.00
฿49.87
+18.7%
8.5%฿58.00฿42.70n/a10
Apr ’25฿44.25
฿49.27
+11.3%
9.1%฿58.00฿42.70n/a10
Mar ’25฿42.00
฿48.57
+15.6%
9.6%฿59.00฿42.70n/a10
Feb ’25฿41.75
฿47.84
+14.6%
10.7%฿59.00฿42.70n/a8
Jan ’25฿43.50
฿46.74
+7.5%
12.2%฿59.00฿38.00n/a9
Dec ’24฿43.75
฿46.97
+7.4%
12.4%฿59.00฿38.00n/a9
Nov ’24฿38.75
฿44.86
+15.8%
10.6%฿52.00฿37.00n/a9
Oct ’24฿41.00
฿44.19
+7.8%
10.3%฿52.00฿37.00n/a9
Sep ’24฿38.75
฿41.91
+8.2%
10.6%฿49.00฿34.50n/a9
Aug ’24฿38.25
฿41.47
+8.4%
10.6%฿49.00฿34.50n/a9
Jul ’24฿36.50
฿41.13
+12.7%
10.8%฿49.00฿34.50฿38.009
Jun ’24฿32.25
฿41.13
+27.5%
10.8%฿49.00฿34.50฿38.259
May ’24฿30.25
฿39.64
+31.1%
9.8%฿47.00฿34.50฿42.007
Apr ’24฿31.00
฿39.64
+27.9%
9.8%฿47.00฿34.50฿44.257
Mar ’24฿32.50
฿38.94
+19.8%
8.6%฿45.00฿34.50฿42.008
Feb ’24฿37.00
฿38.69
+4.6%
8.8%฿45.00฿34.50฿41.758
Jan ’24฿31.50
฿36.93
+17.2%
7.1%฿43.00฿34.50฿43.507
Dec ’23฿32.25
฿37.85
+17.4%
7.0%฿43.00฿34.50฿43.7510
Nov ’23฿31.00
฿38.28
+23.5%
7.1%฿43.00฿34.50฿38.759
Oct ’23฿29.50
฿38.28
+29.8%
7.1%฿43.00฿34.50฿41.009
Sep ’23฿34.50
฿38.05
+10.3%
7.0%฿43.00฿34.50฿38.7510
Aug ’23฿29.50
฿37.30
+26.4%
6.2%฿40.00฿33.00฿38.2510
Jul ’23฿31.25
฿37.30
+19.4%
6.2%฿40.00฿33.00฿36.5010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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