Star Petroleum Refining Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SPRC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SPRC (THB7.1) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (THB4.34)

Is SPRC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPRC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPRC (THB7.1) is trading above our estimate of fair value (THB4.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPRC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPRC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SPRC. This is calculated by dividing SPRC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SPRC's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	฿30.78b

SPRC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.2x
PEG Ratio	2.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPRC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPRC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.4x
BSRC Bangchak Sriracha	5.7x	2.5%	฿28.9b
BCP Bangchak Corporation	3.7x	-5.5%	฿50.6b
BBGI BBGI	43.6x	n/a	฿10.5b
TOP Thai Oil	4.6x	2.8%	฿116.2b
SPRC Star Petroleum Refining	7.8x	2.8%	฿30.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPRC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the peer average (14x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPRC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the TH Oil and Gas Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	-4.0%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	-4.0%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPRC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the TH Oil and Gas industry average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPRC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPRC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.8x
Fair PE Ratio	7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SPRC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPRC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	฿7.10	฿9.50 +33.8%	9.2%	฿11.16	฿7.70	n/a	13
Sep ’25	฿7.10	฿9.87 +39.0%	12.2%	฿11.74	฿7.07	n/a	14
Aug ’25	฿7.75	฿10.35 +33.5%	12.6%	฿11.94	฿7.15	n/a	13
Jul ’25	฿8.30	฿10.49 +26.4%	12.2%	฿12.08	฿7.13	n/a	14
Jun ’25	฿8.45	฿10.55 +24.8%	9.3%	฿11.91	฿8.52	n/a	15
May ’25	฿8.00	฿10.70 +33.7%	8.9%	฿12.19	฿8.94	n/a	15
Apr ’25	฿8.70	฿10.55 +21.3%	8.8%	฿12.14	฿8.80	n/a	15
Mar ’25	฿9.05	฿10.28 +13.6%	10.8%	฿12.00	฿8.41	n/a	15
Feb ’25	฿8.40	฿10.23 +21.8%	10.8%	฿11.90	฿8.41	n/a	15
Jan ’25	฿8.25	฿10.37 +25.7%	13.4%	฿12.79	฿8.25	n/a	15
Dec ’24	฿8.15	฿10.40 +27.6%	13.3%	฿12.83	฿8.27	n/a	15
Nov ’24	฿7.35	฿11.15 +51.7%	10.7%	฿13.22	฿8.92	n/a	14
Oct ’24	฿9.10	฿11.38 +25.0%	11.2%	฿13.33	฿9.00	n/a	15
Sep ’24	฿9.25	฿11.33 +22.5%	11.0%	฿12.99	฿8.99	฿7.10	15
Aug ’24	฿8.75	฿11.26 +28.7%	11.8%	฿12.64	฿8.69	฿7.75	14
Jul ’24	฿8.05	฿11.86 +47.3%	13.7%	฿14.67	฿9.01	฿8.30	14
Jun ’24	฿8.40	฿12.02 +43.1%	10.2%	฿14.26	฿9.03	฿8.45	14
May ’24	฿9.70	฿12.06 +24.3%	11.4%	฿14.55	฿8.98	฿8.00	12
Apr ’24	฿10.80	฿12.40 +14.8%	12.9%	฿14.54	฿8.98	฿8.70	12
Mar ’24	฿10.90	฿12.52 +14.8%	14.6%	฿15.00	฿9.26	฿9.05	13
Feb ’24	฿11.50	฿11.74 +2.1%	15.7%	฿14.16	฿7.86	฿8.40	13
Jan ’24	฿10.70	฿12.35 +15.4%	16.4%	฿15.03	฿8.24	฿8.25	13
Dec ’23	฿11.80	฿12.23 +3.6%	16.5%	฿14.48	฿8.28	฿8.15	13
Nov ’23	฿12.20	฿13.66 +11.9%	15.9%	฿16.89	฿8.87	฿7.35	15
Oct ’23	฿10.60	฿14.43 +36.1%	14.9%	฿16.73	฿8.76	฿9.10	15
Sep ’23	฿12.50	฿14.44 +15.5%	10.1%	฿16.04	฿11.95	฿9.25	15

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.