Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that UOL Group Limited (SGX:U14) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for UOL Group
How Much Debt Does UOL Group Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 UOL Group had S$5.54b of debt, an increase on S$5.22b, over one year. On the flip side, it has S$1.44b in cash leading to net debt of about S$4.10b.
A Look At UOL Group's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that UOL Group had liabilities of S$2.01b due within 12 months and liabilities of S$4.72b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of S$1.44b and S$3.06b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by S$2.24b.
This deficit isn't so bad because UOL Group is worth S$5.03b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While UOL Group's debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.0 suggests a heavy debt load, its interest coverage of 8.7 implies it services that debt with ease. Overall we'd say it seems likely the company is carrying a fairly heavy swag of debt. Also relevant is that UOL Group has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 26% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine UOL Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, UOL Group's free cash flow amounted to 40% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
UOL Group's net debt to EBITDA was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. In particular, we are dazzled with its EBIT growth rate. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about UOL Group's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for UOL Group (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SGX:U14
UOL Group
Engages in property and hospitality activities in Singapore, Australia, the United Kingdom, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Japan, the United States, Canada, Kenya, and internationally.
Proven track record average dividend payer.