Is Ascendas India Trust (SGX:CY6U) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Ascendas India Trust (SGX:CY6U) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Ascendas India Trust

What Is Ascendas India Trust's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2021 Ascendas India Trust had debt of S$1.09b, up from S$816.5m in one year. On the flip side, it has S$167.9m in cash leading to net debt of about S$919.0m.

How Healthy Is Ascendas India Trust's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Ascendas India Trust had liabilities of S$589.9m due within a year, and liabilities of S$1.10b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of S$167.9m as well as receivables valued at S$68.5m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by S$1.45b.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of S$1.38b, we think shareholders really should watch Ascendas India Trust's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Strangely Ascendas India Trust has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 6.8, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 1k. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Ascendas India Trust grew its EBIT by 7.4% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ascendas India Trust's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Ascendas India Trust actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.

Our View

Based on what we've seen Ascendas India Trust is not finding it easy, given its net debt to EBITDA, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we are dazzled with its interest cover. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Ascendas India Trust's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Ascendas India Trust you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.