Stock Analysis

Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92) stock falls 4.6% in past week as five-year earnings and shareholder returns continue downward trend

Source: Shutterstock

It's possible to achieve returns close to the market-weighted average return by buying an index fund. But even in a market-beating portfolio, some stocks will lag the market. The Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (SGX:Y92) stock price is down 23% over five years, but the total shareholder return is -12% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 13% over the same time. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 11% in a month. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 6.5% in the same time.

With the stock having lost 4.6% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

See our latest analysis for Thai Beverage

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Thai Beverage's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 2.7% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 5% per year, over the period. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SGX:Y92 Earnings Per Share Growth March 15th 2023

We know that Thai Beverage has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Thai Beverage, it has a TSR of -12% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Thai Beverage shareholders are down 3.5% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 0.3%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 2% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Thai Beverage better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Thai Beverage is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Thai Beverage is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis