Pulling back 6.7% this week, Food Empire Holdings' SGX:F03) three-year decline in earnings may be coming into investors focus

Investing can be hard but the potential fo an individual stock to pay off big time inspires us. You won't get it right every time, but when you do, the returns can be truly splendid. Take, for example, the Food Empire Holdings Limited (SGX:F03) share price, which skyrocketed 311% over three years. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 29% gain in the last three months. The company reported its financial results recently; you can catch up on the latest numbers by reading our company report.

Although Food Empire Holdings has shed S$85m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years of share price growth, Food Empire Holdings actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 7.4% per year.

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Given this situation, it makes sense to look at other metrics too.

It may well be that Food Empire Holdings revenue growth rate of 11% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Food Empire Holdings, it has a TSR of 393% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Food Empire Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 144% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 36% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Food Empire Holdings you should know about.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.