USP Group Limited (SGX:BRS) Shares May Have Slumped 28% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

To the annoyance of some shareholders, USP Group Limited (SGX:BRS) shares are down a considerable 28% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. Longer-term shareholders will rue the drop in the share price, since it's now virtually flat for the year after a promising few quarters.

Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about USP Group's P/S ratio of 0.1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Trade Distributors industry in Singapore is also close to 0.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for USP Group

How USP Group Has Been Performing

For instance, USP Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on USP Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, USP Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 10%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 6.4% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 4.1% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that USP Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What Does USP Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

USP Group's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our look at USP Group revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for USP Group that you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.