Orexo AB (publ) (STO:ORX) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Orexo AB (publ) (STO:ORX) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of kr146m leading estimates by 3.1%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at kr0.46 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering Orexo provided consensus estimates of kr565.9m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 5.2% decline over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 73% to kr1.63. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr587.3m and losses of kr1.92 per share in 2025. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a cut to losses per share in particular.

View our latest analysis for Orexo

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr20.00, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Orexo analyst has a price target of kr21.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr18.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 4.4% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 6.9% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 22% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Orexo is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Orexo analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Orexo has 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.