Earnings Miss: Camurus AB (publ) Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Camurus AB (publ) (STO:CAMX) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to kr639 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at kr445m, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at kr1.25 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Camurus

Following the latest results, Camurus' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr1.93b in 2024. This would be a sizeable 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 61% to kr6.14. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr1.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr5.86 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Camurus' earnings potential following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 13% to kr704. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Camurus analyst has a price target of kr770 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr500. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 46% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 49% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 38% per year. So although Camurus is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Camurus following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Camurus going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Camurus that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com