Catella AB (publ) (STO:CAT B) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Catella AB (publ) (STO:CAT B), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Unfortunately, Catella delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of kr325m were 14% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 2,286% to kr2.06 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Catella. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Catella, is for revenues of kr1.86b in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 13% reduction in Catella's revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Catella forecast to report a statutory profit of kr3.23 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr2.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr3.81 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Catella

The consensus price target fell 6.6% to kr42.50, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Catella analyst has a price target of kr50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr35.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Catella's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Catella's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 17% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 3.9% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Catella to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Catella. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Catella's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Catella. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Catella going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Catella that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.