Evolution AB (publ) (STO:EVO) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Evolution AB (publ) (STO:EVO) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €513m and statutory earnings per share of €1.26. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Evolution from 14 analysts is for revenues of €2.13b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €5.31, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.33 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Evolution

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr650, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Evolution at kr1,052 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr487. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Evolution's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Evolution is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Evolution's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr650, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Evolution. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Evolution going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Evolution Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.