Evolution AB (publ)

OM:EVO Stock Report

Market Cap: SEK 202.6b

Evolution Valuation

Is EVO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EVO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EVO (SEK977) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK2123.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EVO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EVO?

Key metric: As EVO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EVO. This is calculated by dividing EVO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EVO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.1x
Earnings€1.15b
Market Cap€17.45b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EVO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EVO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.9x
BETS B Betsson
9.8x14.7%SEK 19.4b
KAMBI Kambi Group
17.3x8.6%SEK 3.2b
SHOT Scandic Hotels Group
27.3x24.7%SEK 14.7b
27 Galaxy Entertainment Group
17.3x15.8%HK$144.2b
EVO Evolution
15.1x10.8%SEK 202.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EVO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the peer average (17.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EVO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
EVO 15.1xIndustry Avg. 17.1xNo. of Companies18PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EVO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EVO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EVO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.1x
Fair PE Ratio24.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EVO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EVO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentSEK 977.00
SEK 1,367.77
+40.0%
16.6%SEK 1,786.91SEK 891.45n/a14
Nov ’25SEK 1,000.50
SEK 1,365.88
+36.5%
16.7%SEK 1,784.21SEK 890.11n/a14
Oct ’25SEK 997.00
SEK 1,347.48
+35.2%
16.5%SEK 1,732.66SEK 893.35n/a14
Sep ’25SEK 1,066.50
SEK 1,350.54
+26.6%
16.2%SEK 1,736.68SEK 878.21n/a15
Aug ’25SEK 1,034.50
SEK 1,379.64
+33.4%
16.3%SEK 1,765.55SEK 892.81n/a15
Jul ’25SEK 1,105.50
SEK 1,461.62
+32.2%
14.5%SEK 1,787.48SEK 902.83n/a15
Jun ’25SEK 1,128.00
SEK 1,461.68
+29.6%
13.7%SEK 1,730.89SEK 914.67n/a15
May ’25SEK 1,232.00
SEK 1,487.74
+20.8%
13.1%SEK 1,760.52SEK 932.21n/a16
Apr ’25SEK 1,330.60
SEK 1,475.31
+10.9%
13.5%SEK 1,807.83SEK 914.34n/a16
Mar ’25SEK 1,340.80
SEK 1,437.46
+7.2%
13.6%SEK 1,758.58SEK 889.43n/a16
Feb ’25SEK 1,297.20
SEK 1,353.57
+4.3%
14.8%SEK 1,701.73SEK 765.00n/a16
Jan ’25SEK 1,202.20
SEK 1,322.77
+10.0%
14.2%SEK 1,650.11SEK 752.18n/a16
Dec ’24SEK 1,094.80
SEK 1,351.12
+23.4%
14.3%SEK 1,689.14SEK 769.97n/a16
Nov ’24SEK 989.50
SEK 1,424.44
+44.0%
15.6%SEK 1,796.92SEK 800.05SEK 1,000.5016
Oct ’24SEK 1,106.40
SEK 1,513.41
+36.8%
13.2%SEK 1,751.69SEK 1,009.79SEK 997.0015
Sep ’24SEK 1,197.20
SEK 1,562.10
+30.5%
13.0%SEK 1,788.48SEK 1,041.39SEK 1,066.5016
Aug ’24SEK 1,272.60
SEK 1,551.63
+21.9%
13.1%SEK 1,794.05SEK 1,019.75SEK 1,034.5015
Jul ’24SEK 1,365.80
SEK 1,590.89
+16.5%
12.7%SEK 1,800.15SEK 1,036.30SEK 1,105.5015
Jun ’24SEK 1,425.80
SEK 1,529.64
+7.3%
12.4%SEK 1,748.74SEK 1,013.77SEK 1,128.0014
May ’24SEK 1,365.40
SEK 1,526.61
+11.8%
12.5%SEK 1,747.34SEK 1,018.44SEK 1,232.0014
Apr ’24SEK 1,388.20
SEK 1,513.15
+9.0%
11.4%SEK 1,749.99SEK 1,095.57SEK 1,330.6013
Mar ’24SEK 1,255.00
SEK 1,479.37
+17.9%
11.0%SEK 1,688.48SEK 1,078.65SEK 1,340.8013
Feb ’24SEK 1,173.80
SEK 1,452.30
+23.7%
13.9%SEK 1,723.74SEK 1,024.39SEK 1,297.2012
Jan ’24SEK 1,015.40
SEK 1,375.29
+35.4%
18.7%SEK 1,671.24SEK 850.64SEK 1,202.2012
Dec ’23SEK 1,085.00
SEK 1,371.50
+26.4%
18.7%SEK 1,668.44SEK 846.22SEK 1,094.8012
Nov ’23SEK 1,026.00
SEK 1,378.28
+34.3%
18.4%SEK 1,673.78SEK 848.93SEK 989.5012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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