Evolution AB (publ)

OM:EVO Stock Report

Market Cap: SEK 189.0b

Evolution Valuation

Is EVO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EVO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EVO (SEK915.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK2098.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EVO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EVO?

Key metric: As EVO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EVO. This is calculated by dividing EVO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EVO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.3x
Earnings€1.15b
Market Cap€16.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EVO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EVO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.8x
BETS B Betsson
9.9x14.6%SEK 19.5b
KAMBI Kambi Group
16.2x6.1%SEK 3.0b
SHOT Scandic Hotels Group
27.1x23.7%SEK 14.6b
27 Galaxy Entertainment Group
18x15.6%HK$149.9b
EVO Evolution
14.3x10.6%SEK 189.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EVO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the peer average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EVO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
EVO 14.3xIndustry Avg. 17.5xNo. of Companies15PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EVO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EVO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EVO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.3x
Fair PE Ratio24.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EVO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EVO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentSEK 915.20
SEK 1,335.95
+46.0%
17.0%SEK 1,771.45SEK 882.06n/a15
Dec ’25SEK 952.00
SEK 1,339.81
+40.7%
16.9%SEK 1,774.46SEK 880.84n/a15
Nov ’25SEK 1,000.50
SEK 1,364.76
+36.4%
16.7%SEK 1,784.21SEK 885.68n/a14
Oct ’25SEK 997.00
SEK 1,347.48
+35.2%
16.5%SEK 1,732.66SEK 893.35n/a14
Sep ’25SEK 1,066.50
SEK 1,350.54
+26.6%
16.2%SEK 1,736.68SEK 878.21n/a15
Aug ’25SEK 1,034.50
SEK 1,379.64
+33.4%
16.3%SEK 1,765.55SEK 892.81n/a15
Jul ’25SEK 1,105.50
SEK 1,461.62
+32.2%
14.5%SEK 1,787.48SEK 902.83n/a15
Jun ’25SEK 1,128.00
SEK 1,461.68
+29.6%
13.7%SEK 1,730.89SEK 914.67n/a15
May ’25SEK 1,232.00
SEK 1,487.74
+20.8%
13.1%SEK 1,760.52SEK 932.21n/a16
Apr ’25SEK 1,330.60
SEK 1,475.31
+10.9%
13.5%SEK 1,807.83SEK 914.34n/a16
Mar ’25SEK 1,340.80
SEK 1,437.46
+7.2%
13.6%SEK 1,758.58SEK 889.43n/a16
Feb ’25SEK 1,297.20
SEK 1,353.57
+4.3%
14.8%SEK 1,701.73SEK 765.00n/a16
Jan ’25SEK 1,202.20
SEK 1,322.77
+10.0%
14.2%SEK 1,650.11SEK 752.18n/a16
Dec ’24SEK 1,094.80
SEK 1,351.12
+23.4%
14.3%SEK 1,689.14SEK 769.97SEK 952.0016
Nov ’24SEK 989.50
SEK 1,424.44
+44.0%
15.6%SEK 1,796.92SEK 800.05SEK 1,000.5016
Oct ’24SEK 1,106.40
SEK 1,513.41
+36.8%
13.2%SEK 1,751.69SEK 1,009.79SEK 997.0015
Sep ’24SEK 1,197.20
SEK 1,562.10
+30.5%
13.0%SEK 1,788.48SEK 1,041.39SEK 1,066.5016
Aug ’24SEK 1,272.60
SEK 1,551.63
+21.9%
13.1%SEK 1,794.05SEK 1,019.75SEK 1,034.5015
Jul ’24SEK 1,365.80
SEK 1,590.89
+16.5%
12.7%SEK 1,800.15SEK 1,036.30SEK 1,105.5015
Jun ’24SEK 1,425.80
SEK 1,529.64
+7.3%
12.4%SEK 1,748.74SEK 1,013.77SEK 1,128.0014
May ’24SEK 1,365.40
SEK 1,526.61
+11.8%
12.5%SEK 1,747.34SEK 1,018.44SEK 1,232.0014
Apr ’24SEK 1,388.20
SEK 1,513.15
+9.0%
11.4%SEK 1,749.99SEK 1,095.57SEK 1,330.6013
Mar ’24SEK 1,255.00
SEK 1,479.37
+17.9%
11.0%SEK 1,688.48SEK 1,078.65SEK 1,340.8013
Feb ’24SEK 1,173.80
SEK 1,452.30
+23.7%
13.9%SEK 1,723.74SEK 1,024.39SEK 1,297.2012
Jan ’24SEK 1,015.40
SEK 1,375.29
+35.4%
18.7%SEK 1,671.24SEK 850.64SEK 1,202.2012
Dec ’23SEK 1,085.00
SEK 1,371.50
+26.4%
18.7%SEK 1,668.44SEK 846.22SEK 1,094.8012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 00:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Evolution AB (publ) is covered by 27 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
James Rowland ClarkBarclays
Jack CummingsBerenberg
Jaafar MestariBNP Paribas Exane