We Like Axfood's (STO:AXFO) Earnings For More Than Just Statutory Profit

Shareholders appeared to be happy with Axfood AB (publ)'s (STO:AXFO) solid earnings report last week. According to our analysis of the report, the strong headline profit numbers are supported by strong earnings fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Axfood

Examining Cashflow Against Axfood's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to December 2023, Axfood had an accrual ratio of -0.22. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of kr3.9b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of kr2.36b. Axfood's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Axfood's Profit Performance

Happily for shareholders, Axfood produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that Axfood's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And the EPS is up 20% annually, over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Obviously, we love to consider the historical data to inform our opinion of a company. But it can be really valuable to consider what other analysts are forecasting. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Axfood's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.