AB Volvo (STO:VOLV B) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies AB Volvo (publ) (STO:VOLV B) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for AB Volvo

What Is AB Volvo's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2024 AB Volvo had kr256.7b of debt, an increase on kr232.1b, over one year. On the flip side, it has kr87.1b in cash leading to net debt of about kr169.6b.

How Strong Is AB Volvo's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that AB Volvo had liabilities of kr281.0b due within a year, and liabilities of kr236.2b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of kr87.1b and kr62.1b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total kr368.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

AB Volvo has a very large market capitalization of kr639.4b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

AB Volvo's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 2.3 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its strong interest cover of 1k times, makes us even more comfortable. The bad news is that AB Volvo saw its EBIT decline by 16% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine AB Volvo's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, AB Volvo reported free cash flow worth 20% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.

Our View

Mulling over AB Volvo's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making AB Volvo stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example AB Volvo has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.