Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For AB SKF (publ) (STO:SKF B) After Its First-Quarter Results

It's been a good week for AB SKF (publ) (STO:SKF B) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.4% to kr230. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of kr25b and statutory earnings per share of kr4.15. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for AB SKF

Taking into account the latest results, AB SKF's 16 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be kr100.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to kr15.97. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr100.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr15.73 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr233, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AB SKF at kr320 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr165. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the AB SKF's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.6% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. It's pretty clear that AB SKF's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AB SKF analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for AB SKF that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.