Saab (OM:SAAB B) Valuation: Is There More Upside After a 150% One-Year Rally?

Saab (OM:SAAB B) shares have shown considerable strength this year, rising over 140% year-to-date and surging more than 150% over the past year. Investors are keeping a close watch on factors that may continue to drive the company’s performance in the current environment.

See our latest analysis for Saab.

Saab’s share price momentum has been unmistakable, with a steady climb that shows strong investor confidence in both current operations and future prospects. While there have been no dramatic recent events, the 1-year total shareholder return of 151% highlights significant long-term value creation alongside short-term gains.

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With shares trading well above analyst price targets, the question becomes whether Saab is still undervalued relative to its robust earnings growth, or if the market has already priced in all future gains. Could there still be a buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 21.5% Overvalued

The widely followed narrative suggests Saab’s current market price sits well above its estimated fair value. This difference frames the stakes for investors searching for hidden upside.

The significant ramp-up in global defense spending, especially following the recent NATO commitment for member states to target 5% of GDP by 2030-2035, directly supports sustained demand for Saab's advanced defense solutions. Saab's strong backlog (approximately SEK 200 billion) and rising book-to-bill ratio position it to benefit from this long-duration trend, likely driving outsized topline growth over the next several years.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the secret behind that high valuation? This narrative banks on long-term industry transformation and a future full of revenue surprises. Which aggressive forecasts and margin improvements underpin this bold fair value? Click through for the details analysts are betting on.

Result: Fair Value of $466.7 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a sudden shift in government priorities or setbacks in Saab’s ambitious R&D investments could quickly put this upbeat narrative to the test.

Find out about the key risks to this Saab narrative.

Build Your Own Saab Narrative

If you think there’s another angle or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own narrative in just a few minutes, and Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Saab.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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