David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Nederman Holding AB (publ) (STO:NMAN) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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How Much Debt Does Nederman Holding Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Nederman Holding had kr1.54b in debt in December 2020; about the same as the year before. However, it does have kr466.8m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about kr1.07b.
How Strong Is Nederman Holding's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Nederman Holding had liabilities of kr1.05b due within a year, and liabilities of kr1.89b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of kr466.8m and kr796.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling kr1.69b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Nederman Holding has a market capitalization of kr5.11b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Nederman Holding has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.9 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 5.6 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Sadly, Nederman Holding's EBIT actually dropped 6.5% in the last year. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Nederman Holding's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Nederman Holding recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Nederman Holding was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to grow its EBIT. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Nederman Holding's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Nederman Holding .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About OM:NMAN
Nederman Holding
Operates as an environmental technology company in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
Adequate balance sheet average dividend payer.