ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (STO:ASSA B) Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Shareholders might have noticed that ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (STO:ASSA B) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to kr314 in the past week. ASSA ABLOY reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of kr150b and statutory earnings per share of kr14.08, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for ASSA ABLOY

Following the latest results, ASSA ABLOY's 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr160.1b in 2025. This would be a satisfactory 6.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.5% to kr15.27. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr161.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr15.64 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at kr353, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ASSA ABLOY at kr412 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr290. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await ASSA ABLOY shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ASSA ABLOY's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ASSA ABLOY's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like ASSA ABLOY is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ASSA ABLOY. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ASSA ABLOY going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with ASSA ABLOY , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.