Saudi Ground Services Valuation

Is 4031 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4031 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4031 (SAR48.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR36.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4031 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4031?

Key metric: As 4031 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4031. This is calculated by dividing 4031's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4031's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	31x
Earnings	ر.س292.90m
Market Cap	ر.س9.08b

4031 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	20.3x
PEG Ratio	2.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4031's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4031 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	24.1x
4260 United International Transportation	21x	16.5%	ر.س5.9b
4263 SAL Saudi Logistics Services	30x	9.9%	ر.س21.0b
4261 Theeb Rent A Car	19.9x	16.1%	ر.س3.3b
4262 Lumi Rental	25.7x	18.3%	ر.س4.0b
4031 Saudi Ground Services	31x	12.5%	ر.س9.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4031 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31x) compared to the peer average (24.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4031's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Infrastructure Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4031 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31x) compared to the Asian Infrastructure industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4031's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4031 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	31x
Fair PE Ratio	26.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4031 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4031 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س48.30	ر.س55.13 +14.1%	16.5%	ر.س67.00	ر.س44.75	n/a	5
Nov ’25	ر.س52.90	ر.س55.08 +4.1%	16.6%	ر.س67.00	ر.س44.50	n/a	5
Oct ’25	ر.س51.40	ر.س55.08 +7.2%	16.6%	ر.س67.00	ر.س44.50	n/a	5
Sep ’25	ر.س54.50	ر.س52.10 -4.4%	14.9%	ر.س65.00	ر.س44.50	n/a	4
Aug ’25	ر.س51.70	ر.س52.98 +2.5%	16.8%	ر.س65.00	ر.س43.65	n/a	3
Jul ’25	ر.س52.50	ر.س52.98 +0.9%	16.8%	ر.س65.00	ر.س43.65	n/a	3
Jun ’25	ر.س51.30	ر.س48.05 -6.3%	25.9%	ر.س65.00	ر.س35.50	n/a	3
May ’25	ر.س56.30	ر.س40.25 -28.5%	11.8%	ر.س45.00	ر.س35.50	n/a	2
Apr ’25	ر.س49.30	ر.س39.53 -19.8%	10.1%	ر.س45.00	ر.س35.50	n/a	3
Mar ’25	ر.س41.40	ر.س41.55 +0.4%	8.3%	ر.س45.00	ر.س38.10	n/a	2
Feb ’25	ر.س41.20	ر.س41.55 +0.8%	8.3%	ر.س45.00	ر.س38.10	n/a	2
Jan ’25	ر.س36.30	ر.س41.55 +14.5%	8.3%	ر.س45.00	ر.س38.10	n/a	2
Dec ’24	ر.س30.50	ر.س41.90 +37.4%	11.3%	ر.س48.60	ر.س38.10	n/a	3
Nov ’24	ر.س29.40	ر.س41.90 +42.5%	11.3%	ر.س48.60	ر.س38.10	ر.س52.90	3
Oct ’24	ر.س29.40	ر.س41.90 +42.5%	11.3%	ر.س48.60	ر.س38.10	ر.س51.40	3
Sep ’24	ر.س33.30	ر.س43.80 +31.5%	11.0%	ر.س48.60	ر.س39.00	ر.س54.50	2
Aug ’24	ر.س32.85	ر.س43.80 +33.3%	11.0%	ر.س48.60	ر.س39.00	ر.س51.70	2
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س43.80 0%	11.0%	ر.س48.60	ر.س39.00	ر.س52.50	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.